This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 53% to break even | 14%–73% | 13 points shortwon 40%, needs 53% | 251passing yards |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 53% to break even | 27%–73% | 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% | 229.2passing yards |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 53% to break even | 33%–72% | 1 points betterwon 53%, needs 53% | 229.5passing yards |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 53% to break even | 22%–78% | 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% | 243.3passing yards |
| Last season |
Tonight SF plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against ATL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 5 of 8 on the road. Tonight: ATL allows 268.7 passing yards a game to quarterbacks, the 4th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 236.1): a tough matchup for this bet. How ATL defends quarterbacks
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Passing yards in each game against under 241.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 24%–68% |
| 7 points shortwon 45%, needs 53% |
| 233.5passing yards |
| Every game | 8 of 1747%needs 53% to break even | 29%–66% | 6 points shortwon 47%, needs 53% | 237passing yards |
| 264 |
| -22.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 5 | 189 | +52.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 218 | +23.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 297 | -55.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 287 | -45.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 205 | +36.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 20 | 140 | +101.5 | Won | |
| Wk 19 | 262 | -20.5 | Lost |
| Wk 18 | 127 | +114.5 | Won |
| Wk 17 | 303 | -61.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 295 | -53.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 295 | -53.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 168 | +73.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 193 | +48.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 200 | +41.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 309 | -67.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 277 | -35.5 | Lost |
| -191at DraftKings |
| 6 of 11· last season55%needs 66% to break even3 of 8 on the road |
| Record is last season's |
| -29.6Not beating its price |
| Over 224.5 passing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -159at BetRivers | 6 of 11· last season55%needs 61% to break even3 of 8 on the road | Record is last season's | -26.3Not beating its price |
| Over 229.5 passing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -149at DraftKings | 6 of 11· last season55%needs 60% to break even3 of 8 on the road | Record is last season's | -25.1Not beating its price |
| Over 231.5 passing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -152at BetOnline | 6 of 11· last season55%needs 60% to break even3 of 8 on the road | Record is last season's | -25.5Not beating its price |
| Over 236.5 passing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -115at BetRivers | 6 of 11· last season55%needs 53% to break even3 of 8 on the road | Record is last season's | -20.2Not beating its price |
| Over 239.5 passing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -117at DraftKings | 6 of 11· last season55%needs 54% to break even3 of 8 on the road | Record is last season's | -20.6Not beating its price |
| Over 240.5 passing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -114at FanDuel | 6 of 11· last season55%needs 53% to break even3 of 8 on the road | Record is last season's | -20.1Not beating its price |
| Over 241.5 passing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -113at DraftKings | 6 of 11· last season55%needs 53% to break even3 of 8 on the road | Record is last season's | -19.9Not beating its price |
| Over 246.5 passing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -115at BetMGM | 6 of 11· last season55%needs 53% to break even3 of 8 on the road | Record is last season's | -20.2Not beating its price |
| Over 249.5 passing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | +125at BetRivers | 6 of 11· last season55%needs 44% to break even3 of 8 on the road | Record is last season's | -13.2Not beating its price |
| Over 251.5 passing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | +107at BetOnline | 6 of 11· last season55%needs 48% to break even3 of 8 on the road | Record is last season's | -16.2Not beating its price |
| Over 259.5 passing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | +137at DraftKings | 6 of 11· last season55%needs 42% to break even3 of 8 on the road | Record is last season's | -11.5Not beating its price |
| Over 261.5 passing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | +132at BetOnline | 6 of 11· last season55%needs 43% to break even3 of 8 on the road | Record is last season's | -12.2Not beating its price |
| Over 269.5 passing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | +173at DraftKings | 5 of 11· last season45%needs 37% to break even2 of 8 on the road | Record is last season's | -15.5Not beating its price |
| Over 271.5 passing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | +162at BetOnline | 5 of 11· last season45%needs 38% to break even2 of 8 on the road | Record is last season's | -16.7Not beating its price |
| Over 274.5 passing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | +230at BetRivers | 5 of 11· last season45%needs 30% to break even2 of 8 on the road | Record is last season's | -10.6Not beating its price |
| Over 279.5 passing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | +215at DraftKings | 4 of 11· last season36%needs 32% to break even1 of 8 on the road | Record is last season's | -13.1Not beating its price |
| Over 281.5 passing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | +199at BetOnline | 4 of 11· last season36%needs 33% to break even1 of 8 on the road | Record is last season's | -14.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +101at Kalshi |
| 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 50% to break even4 of 8 on the road |
| -4.7Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 rushing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | +142at FanDuel | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 41% to break even2 of 8 on the road | Record is this season's | -5.0Not beating its price |
| Under 31.5 pass attemptsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -125at BetMGM | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 56% to break even5 of 8 on the road | -5.2Not beating its price |
| Over 20.5 rushing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -108at DraftKings | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 52% to break even3 of 8 on the road | -5.6Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 rushing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -114at FanDuel | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 53% to break even3 of 8 on the road | -6.6Not beating its price |
| Over 18.5 rushing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -125at BetMGM | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 56% to break even3 of 8 on the road | -8.4Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 passing TDsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -134at Caesars | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 57% to break even6 of 8 on the road | Record is this season's | -10.0Not beating its price |
| Over 4.5 rush attemptsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | +101at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 50% to break even5 of 8 on the road | -10.9Not beating its price |
| Over 14.5 rushing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -183at Kalshi | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 65% to break even4 of 8 on the road | -11.5Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | +375at BetMGM | 3 of 15· last 15 games20%needs 21% to break even1 of 8 on the road | -11.6Not beating its price |
| Over 289.5 pass + rush yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | +157at DraftKings | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 39% to break even2 of 8 on the road | -12.4Not beating its price |
| Under 20.5 completionsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -112at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even5 of 8 on the road | -12.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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