This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 56% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 5 of 5100%needs 56% to break even | 65%–100% | 44 points betterwon 100%, needs 56% | 27.4pass attempts |
| Last 10 games | 8 of 1080%needs 56% to break even | 54%–93% | 24 points betterwon 80%, needs 56% | 28.9pass attempts |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 56% to break even | 52%–87% | 18 points betterwon 73%, needs 56% | 29.3pass attempts |
| This season | 5 of 683%needs 56% to break even | 50%–96% | 28 points betterwon 83%, needs 56% | 28.5pass attempts |
Tonight SF plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against ATL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 5 of 8 on the road. Tonight: ATL allows 40.8 pass attempts a game to quarterbacks, the 2nd most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 33.7): a tough matchup for this bet. How ATL defends quarterbacks
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pass attempts in each game against under 31.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Pass attempts | Beat 31.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 29 | +2.5 | ||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| Last season |
| 6 of 1155%needs 56% to break even |
| 32%–76% |
| 1 points shortwon 55%, needs 56% |
| 31.1pass attempts |
| Every game | 11 of 1765%needs 56% to break even | 45%–81% | 9 points betterwon 65%, needs 56% | 30.2pass attempts |
| Won |
| Wk 5 | 29 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 30 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 27 | +4.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 22 | +9.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 34 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 20 | 27 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Wk 19 | 31 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 18 | 27 | +4.5 | Won |
| Wk 17 | 33 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 34 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 30 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 29 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 32 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 26 | +5.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 38 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 35 | -3.5 | Lost |
| -165at Fanatics |
| 7 of 11· last season64%needs 62% to break even4 of 8 on the road |
| Record is last season's |
| -30.9Not beating its price |
| Over 30.5 pass attemptsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -128at DraftKings | 6 of 11· last season55%needs 56% to break even4 of 8 on the road | Record is last season's | -32.1Not beating its price |
| Over 31.5 pass attemptsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | +101at DraftKings | 5 of 11· last season45%needs 50% to break even3 of 8 on the road | Record is last season's | -30.2Not beating its price |
| Over 33.5 pass attemptsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | +167at DraftKings | 3 of 11· last season27%needs 37% to break even3 of 8 on the road | Record is last season's | -25.1Not beating its price |
| Over 34.5 pass attemptsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | +140at BetMGM | 2 of 11· last season18%needs 42% to break even1 of 8 on the road | Record is last season's | -31.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +142at FanDuel |
| 5 of 6· this season83%needs 41% to break even2 of 8 on the road |
| Record is this season's |
| -5.0Not beating its price |
| Over 20.5 rushing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -108at DraftKings | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 52% to break even3 of 8 on the road | -5.6Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 rushing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -114at FanDuel | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 53% to break even3 of 8 on the road | -6.6Not beating its price |
| Over 18.5 rushing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -125at BetMGM | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 56% to break even3 of 8 on the road | -8.4Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 passing TDsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -134at Caesars | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 57% to break even6 of 8 on the road | Record is this season's | -10.0Not beating its price |
| Over 274.5 passing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | +230at BetRivers | 5 of 11· last season45%needs 30% to break even2 of 8 on the road | Record is last season's | -10.6Not beating its price |
| Over 4.5 rush attemptsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | +101at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 50% to break even5 of 8 on the road | -10.9Not beating its price |
| Over 14.5 rushing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -183at Kalshi | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 65% to break even4 of 8 on the road | -11.5Not beating its price |
| Over 259.5 passing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | +137at DraftKings | 6 of 11· last season55%needs 42% to break even3 of 8 on the road | Record is last season's | -11.5Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | +375at BetMGM | 3 of 15· last 15 games20%needs 21% to break even1 of 8 on the road | -11.6Not beating its price |
| Over 261.5 passing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | +132at BetOnline | 6 of 11· last season55%needs 43% to break even3 of 8 on the road | Record is last season's | -12.2Not beating its price |
| Over 289.5 pass + rush yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | +157at DraftKings | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 39% to break even2 of 8 on the road | -12.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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