This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 63% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 63% to break even | 27%–86% | 3 points shortwon 60%, needs 63% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 63% to break even | 27%–73% | 13 points shortwon 50%, needs 63% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 63% to break even | 28%–67% | 16 points shortwon 47%, needs 63% |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 63% to break even | 22%–78% | 13 points shortwon 50%, needs 63% |
| Last season | 6 of 1155%needs 63% to break even | 32%–76% | 8 points shortwon 55%, needs 63% |
| Every game |
Tonight SF plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against ATL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Passing yards in each game against over 224.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 224.5 passing yardsBrock Purdy |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 30.5 pass attemptsBrock Purdy |
| 34%–71% |
| 10 points shortwon 53%, needs 63% |
| Lost |
| Wk 4 | 218 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 297 | +72.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 287 | +62.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 205 | -19.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 20 | 140 | -84.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 19 | 262 | +37.5 | Won |
| Wk 18 | 127 | -97.5 | Lost |
| Wk 17 | 303 | +78.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 295 | +70.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 295 | +70.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 168 | -56.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 193 | -31.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 200 | -24.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 309 | +84.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 277 | +52.5 | Won |
| +129at Kalshi |
| 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 44% to break even |
| -14.7Not beating its price |
| Under 238.5 passing yardsBrock Purdy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -114at BetRivers | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 53% to break even | -22.1Not beating its price |
| Under 240.5 passing yardsBrock Purdy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -114at FanDuel | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 53% to break even | -22.1Not beating its price |
| Under 242.5 passing yardsBrock Purdy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -113at DraftKings | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 53% to break even | -21.9Not beating its price |
| Under 244.5 passing yardsBrock Purdy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -115at BetMGM | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 53% to break even | -22.3Not beating its price |
| Under 249.5 passing yardsBrock Purdy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -137at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 58% to break even | -25.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +105at Kalshi |
| 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 49% to break even |
| -3.9Not beating its price |
| Over 18.5 rushing yardsBrock Purdy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -114at DraftKings | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 53% to break even | -6.6Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 rushing yardsBrock Purdy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -114at FanDuel | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 53% to break even | -6.6Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 rushing yardsBrock Purdy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | +129at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 44% to break even | Record is this season's | -6.8Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 passing TDsBrock Purdy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -148at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 60% to break even | Record is this season's | -11.9Not beating its price |
| Over 14.5 rushing yardsBrock Purdy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -191at Kalshi | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 66% to break even | -12.2Not beating its price |
| Over 4.5 rush attemptsBrock Purdy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -107at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 52% to break even | -12.4Not beating its price |
| Under 20.5 completionsBrock Purdy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -116at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 54% to break even | -13.5Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 interceptions thrownBrock Purdy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -103at Kalshi | 8 of 11· last season73%needs 51% to break even | Record is last season's | -17.0Not beating its price |
| Over 29.5 rushing yardsBrock Purdy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | +198at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 34% to break even | -17.4Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 interceptions thrownBrock Purdy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -121at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 55% to break even | -22.4Not beating its price |
| Under 14.5 rushing yardsBrock Purdy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | +140at Kalshi | 4 of 11· last season36%needs 42% to break even | Record is last season's | -25.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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