This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 43% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 43% to break even | 27%–86% | 17 points betterwon 60%, needs 43% | 251passing yards |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 43% to break even | 27%–73% | 7 points betterwon 50%, needs 43% | 229.2passing yards |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 43% to break even | 28%–67% | 4 points betterwon 47%, needs 43% | 229.5passing yards |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 43% to break even | 22%–78% | 7 points betterwon 50%, needs 43% | 243.3passing yards |
| Last season |
Tonight SF plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against ATL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 3 of 8 on the road. Tonight: ATL allows 268.7 passing yards a game to quarterbacks, the 4th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 236.1): an easy matchup for this bet. How ATL defends quarterbacks
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Passing yards in each game against over 261.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Passing yards | Beat 261.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 6 of 1155%needs 43% to break even |
| 32%–76% |
| 11 points betterwon 55%, needs 43% |
| 233.5passing yards |
| Every game | 9 of 1753%needs 43% to break even | 34%–71% | 10 points betterwon 53%, needs 43% | 237passing yards |
| 264 |
| +2.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 5 | 189 | -72.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 218 | -43.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 297 | +35.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 287 | +25.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 205 | -56.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 20 | 140 | -121.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 19 | 262 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 18 | 127 | -134.5 | Lost |
| Wk 17 | 303 | +41.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 295 | +33.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 295 | +33.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 168 | -93.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 193 | -68.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 200 | -61.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 309 | +47.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 277 | +15.5 | Won |
| +134at Kalshi |
| 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 43% to break even5 of 8 on the road |
| -14.0Not beating its price |
| Under 236.5 passing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -115at BetRivers | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 53% to break even5 of 8 on the road | -22.3Not beating its price |
| Under 240.5 passing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -114at FanDuel | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 53% to break even5 of 8 on the road | -22.1Not beating its price |
| Under 241.5 passing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -111at DraftKings | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 53% to break even5 of 8 on the road | -21.6Not beating its price |
| Under 246.5 passing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -115at BetMGM | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 53% to break even5 of 8 on the road | -22.3Not beating its price |
| Under 249.5 passing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -131at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 57% to break even5 of 8 on the road | -24.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +101at Kalshi |
| 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 50% to break even4 of 8 on the road |
| -4.7Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 rushing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | +142at FanDuel | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 41% to break even2 of 8 on the road | Record is this season's | -5.0Not beating its price |
| Under 31.5 pass attemptsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -125at BetMGM | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 56% to break even5 of 8 on the road | -5.2Not beating its price |
| Over 20.5 rushing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -108at DraftKings | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 52% to break even3 of 8 on the road | -5.6Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 rushing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -114at FanDuel | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 53% to break even3 of 8 on the road | -6.6Not beating its price |
| Over 18.5 rushing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -125at BetMGM | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 56% to break even3 of 8 on the road | -8.4Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 passing TDsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -134at Caesars | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 57% to break even6 of 8 on the road | Record is this season's | -10.0Not beating its price |
| Over 4.5 rush attemptsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | +101at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 50% to break even5 of 8 on the road | -10.9Not beating its price |
| Over 14.5 rushing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -183at Kalshi | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 65% to break even4 of 8 on the road | -11.5Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | +375at BetMGM | 3 of 15· last 15 games20%needs 21% to break even1 of 8 on the road | -11.6Not beating its price |
| Over 289.5 pass + rush yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | +157at DraftKings | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 39% to break even2 of 8 on the road | -12.4Not beating its price |
| Under 20.5 completionsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -112at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even5 of 8 on the road | -12.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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