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NFLPlayer propPassing yards
Brock Purdy over 229.5 passing yards
Won6 of 11last season · 55%
Best price-149DraftKings
Price needs59.8%wins to break even
Every game9 of 17this season and last
Trend score-25.1Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 60% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 60% to break even | 27%–86% | evenwon 60%, needs 60% | 251passing yards |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 60% to break even | 27%–73% | 10 points shortwon 50%, needs 60% | 229.2passing yards |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 60% to break even | 28%–67% | 13 points shortwon 47%, needs 60% | 229.5passing yards |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 60% to break even | 22%–78% | 10 points shortwon 50%, needs 60% | 243.3passing yards |
| Last season | 6 of 1155%needs 60% to break even | 32%–76% | 5 points shortwon 55%, needs 60% | 233.5passing yards |
| Every game | 9 of 1753%needs 60% to break even | 34%–71% | 7 points shortwon 53%, needs 60% | 237passing yards |
Games like tonight
Tonight SF plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against ATL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 3 of 8 on the road. Tonight: ATL allows 268.7 passing yards a game to quarterbacks, the 4th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 236.1): an easy matchup for this bet. How ATL defends quarterbacks
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Every book's price
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Brock Purdy over 229.5 passing yards2 books
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Passing yards in each game against over 229.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Passing yards | Beat 229.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 |  WSH | 264 | +34.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 |  SEA | 189 | -40.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 |  DEN | 218 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 |  ARI | 297 | +67.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 |  MIA | 287 | +57.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 |  LAR | 205 | -24.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 20 | SEA | 140 | -89.5 | Lost |
| Wk 19 |  PHI | 262 | +32.5 | Won |
| Wk 18 | SEA | 127 | -102.5 | Lost |
| Wk 17 |  CHI | 303 | +73.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 |  IND | 295 | +65.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 |  TEN | 295 | +65.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 |  CLE | 168 | -61.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 |  CAR | 193 | -36.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | ARI | 200 | -29.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 |  JAX | 309 | +79.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | SEA | 277 | +47.5 | Won |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 224.5 passing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel |  +134at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 43% to break even5 of 8 on the road | -14.0Not beating its price | ||
| Under 236.5 passing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel |  -115at BetRivers | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 53% to break even5 of 8 on the road | -22.3Not beating its price | ||
| Under 240.5 passing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel |  -114at FanDuel | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 53% to break even5 of 8 on the road | -22.1Not beating its price | ||
| Under 241.5 passing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel |  -111at DraftKings | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 53% to break even5 of 8 on the road | -21.6Not beating its price | ||
| Under 246.5 passing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel |  -115at BetMGM | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 53% to break even5 of 8 on the road | -22.3Not beating its price | ||
| Under 249.5 passing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -131at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 57% to break even5 of 8 on the road | -24.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
More on Brock Purdy in this game
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 30.5 pass attemptsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | +105at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 49% to break even4 of 8 on the road | -3.9Not beating its price | ||
| Over 24.5 rushing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | +142at FanDuel | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 41% to break even2 of 8 on the road | Record is this season's | -5.0Not beating its price | |
| Under 31.5 pass attemptsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -125at BetMGM | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 56% to break even5 of 8 on the road | -5.2Not beating its price | ||
| Over 20.5 rushing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -108at DraftKings | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 52% to break even3 of 8 on the road | -5.6Not beating its price | ||
| Over 19.5 rushing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -114at FanDuel | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 53% to break even3 of 8 on the road | -6.6Not beating its price | ||
| Over 18.5 rushing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -125at BetMGM | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 56% to break even3 of 8 on the road | -8.4Not beating its price | ||
| Over 1.5 passing TDsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel |  -134at Caesars | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 57% to break even6 of 8 on the road | Record is this season's | -10.0Not beating its price | |
| Over 14.5 rushing yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -175at Kalshi | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 64% to break even4 of 8 on the road | -10.7Not beating its price | ||
| Scores a TDBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | +375at BetMGM | 3 of 15· last 15 games20%needs 21% to break even1 of 8 on the road | -11.6Not beating its price | ||
| Over 4.5 rush attemptsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -103at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 51% to break even5 of 8 on the road | -11.7Not beating its price | ||
| Over 289.5 pass + rush yardsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | +157at DraftKings | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 39% to break even2 of 8 on the road | -12.4Not beating its price | ||
| Under 20.5 completionsBrock Purdy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -112at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even5 of 8 on the road | -12.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.