This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 0 of 50%needs 53% to break even | 0%–35% | 53 points shortwon 0%, needs 53% | 32.6rushing yards |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 53% to break even | 7%–46% | 33 points shortwon 20%, needs 53% | 45.3rushing yards |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 1527%needs 53% to break even | 13%–48% | 27 points shortwon 27%, needs 53% | 48.9rushing yards |
| This season | 0 of 60%needs 53% to break even | 0%–31% | 53 points shortwon 0%, needs 53% | 34.2rushing yards |
| Last season | 5 of 1828%needs 53% to break even | 14%–47% | 25 points shortwon 28%, needs 53% | 46.2rushing yards |
| Every game | 5 of 2421%needs 53% to break even | 11%–37% | 32 points shortwon 21%, needs 53% | 43.2rushing yards |
Tonight HOU plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against NYG. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 2 of 11 at home. Tonight: NYG allows 107.5 rushing yards a game to running backs, the 4th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 89.6): an easy matchup for this bet. How NYG defends running backs
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Rushing yards in each game against over 64.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Rushing yards | Beat 64.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 56 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 62 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 22 | -42.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 15 | -49.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 8 | -56.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 42 | -22.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 20 | 17 | -47.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 19 | 112 | +47.5 | Won | |
| Wk 18 | 48 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 71 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Wk 15 | 30 | -34.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | 68 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 64 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | 74 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Wk 11 | 44 | -20.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | 63 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 27 | -37.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 62 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 15 | -49.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 24 | -40.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 69 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 27 | -37.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 14 | -50.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 3 | -61.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 49.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | +152at Kalshi | 10 of 18· last season56%needs 40% to break even7 of 11 at home | Record is last season's | -4.8Not beating its price | |
| Under 59.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | +114at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 47% to break even7 of 11 at home | Record is this season's | -3.6Not beating its price | |
| Under 61.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | -118at BetRivers | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 54% to break even7 of 11 at home | Record is this season's | -9.7Not beating its price | |
| Under 62.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | -120at BetMGM | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 55% to break even8 of 11 at home | Record is this season's | -0.5Not beating its price | |
| Under 63.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | -114at FanDuel | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 53% to break even9 of 11 at home | Record is this season's | 1.6Slight | |
| Under 64.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | -114at BetOnline | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 53% to break even9 of 11 at home | Record is this season's | 3.9Good | |
| Under 69.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | -154at Kalshi | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 61% to break even10 of 11 at home | Record is this season's | 1.4Slight |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 15.5 rush attemptsWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | +105at Fanatics | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 49% to break even9 of 11 at home | Record is this season's | 3.2Good | |
| Under 16.5 rush attemptsWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | -133at BetOnline | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 57% to break even10 of 11 at home | Record is this season's | -1.5Not beating its price | |
| Under 79.5 rush + rec yardsWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | -103at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 51% to break even8 of 11 at home | -3.6Not beating its price | ||
| Under 9.5 receiving yardsWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | +140at Kalshi | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 42% to break even6 of 11 at home | -4.8Not beating its price | ||
| Under 2.5 receptionsWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | -137at Kalshi | 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 58% to break even8 of 11 at home | -5.3Not beating its price | ||
| Under 14.5 rush attemptsWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | +146at Kalshi | 11 of 18· last season61%needs 41% to break even9 of 11 at home | Record is last season's | -5.4Not beating its price | |
| Under 1.5 receptionsWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | +164at FanDuel | 11 of 18· last season61%needs 38% to break even6 of 11 at home | Record is last season's | -6.3Not beating its price | |
| Doesn't score a TDWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | -107at Kalshi | 13 of 18· last season72%needs 52% to break even8 of 11 at home | Record is last season's | -6.8Not beating its price | |
| Under 17.5 rush attemptsWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | -191at Kalshi | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 66% to break even11 of 11 at home | Record is this season's | -7.4Not beating its price | |
| Over 24.5 receiving yardsWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | +290at FanDuel | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 26% to break even4 of 11 at home | -14.2Not beating its price | ||
| Under 11.5 receiving yardsWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | -114at FanDuel | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 53% to break even6 of 11 at home | -14.4Not beating its price | ||
| Over 19.5 receiving yardsWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | +198at FanDuel | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 34% to break even4 of 11 at home | -15.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.