This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 39% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 39% to break even | 14%–73% | 1 points betterwon 40%, needs 39% | 2.4receptions |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 39% to break even | 27%–73% | 11 points betterwon 50%, needs 39% | 1.8receptions |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 39% to break even | 39%–78% | 21 points betterwon 60%, needs 39% | 1.6receptions |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 39% to break even | 22%–78% | 11 points betterwon 50%, needs 39% | 2.2receptions |
| Last season |
Tonight HOU plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against NYG. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 6 of 11 at home. Tonight: NYG allows 3.5 receptions a game to running backs, the 4th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 4.4): an easy matchup for this bet. How NYG defends running backs
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against under 1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receptions |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 42%–77% |
| 23 points betterwon 61%, needs 39% |
| 1.4receptions |
| Every game | 14 of 2458%needs 39% to break even | 42%–73% | 20 points betterwon 58%, needs 39% | 1.6receptions |
| Beat 1.5 by |
|---|
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 5 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 20 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 19 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 18 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 15 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 14 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 12 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 11 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 10 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 8 | 4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| +134at Kalshi |
| 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 43% to break even3 of 11 at home |
| -28.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -154at Kalshi |
| 6 of 6· this season100%needs 61% to break even10 of 11 at home |
| Record is this season's |
| 1.4Slight |
| Under 62.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | -114at BetOnline | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 53% to break even8 of 11 at home | Record is this season's | 0.5Slight |
| Under 49.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | +173at Kalshi | 10 of 18· last season56%needs 37% to break even7 of 11 at home | Record is last season's | -2.2Not beating its price |
| Under 59.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | +109at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 48% to break even7 of 11 at home | Record is this season's | -4.5Not beating its price |
| Under 14.5 rush attemptsWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | +146at Kalshi | 11 of 18· last season61%needs 41% to break even9 of 11 at home | Record is last season's | -5.4Not beating its price |
| Under 79.5 rush + rec yardsWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | -116at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 54% to break even8 of 11 at home | -6.1Not beating its price |
| Doesn't score a TDWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | -107at Kalshi | 13 of 18· last season72%needs 52% to break even8 of 11 at home | Record is last season's | -6.8Not beating its price |
| Under 17.5 rush attemptsWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | -191at Kalshi | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 66% to break even11 of 11 at home | Record is this season's | -7.4Not beating its price |
| Under 61.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | -112at DraftKings | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 53% to break even7 of 11 at home | Record is this season's | -8.6Not beating its price |
| Under 60.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | -118at BetRivers | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 54% to break even7 of 11 at home | Record is this season's | -9.7Not beating its price |
| Under 14.5 receiving yardsWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | -161at Kalshi | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 62% to break even6 of 11 at home | -21.4Not beating its price |
| Over 14.5 receiving yardsWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | +114at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 47% to break even5 of 11 at home | -22.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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