This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 43% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 43% to break even | 27%–86% | 17 points betterwon 60%, needs 43% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 43% to break even | 35%–81% | 17 points betterwon 60%, needs 43% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 43% to break even | 28%–67% | 4 points betterwon 47%, needs 43% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 43% to break even | 35%–88% | 24 points betterwon 67%, needs 43% |
| Last season | 11 of 1861%needs 43% to break even | 42%–77% |
Tonight HOU plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against NYG. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Rush attempts in each game against under 14.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 14.5 rush attemptsWoody Marks |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 69.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · |
| Every game | 15 of 2463%needs 43% to break even | 46%–77% | 20 points betterwon 63%, needs 43% |
| 15 |
| -0.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 5 | 15 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 6 | +8.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 5 | +9.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 8 | +6.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 9 | +5.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 20 | 14 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 19 | 19 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 18 | 10 | +4.5 | Won |
| Wk 17 | 19 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 7 | +7.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 26 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 19 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 16 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 18 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 14 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 10 | +4.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 11 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 10 | +4.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 7 | +7.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 17 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 6 | +8.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 3 | +11.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 3 | +11.5 | Won |
| -161at Kalshi |
| 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 62% to break even |
| -33.9Not beating its price |
| Over 17.5 rush attemptsWoody Marks · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful: next up at RB | +146at Kalshi | 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 41% to break even | -26.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -175at Kalshi |
| 6 of 6· this season100%needs 64% to break even |
| Record is this season's |
| -1.1Not beating its price |
| Under 49.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful: next up at RB | +159at Kalshi | 10 of 18· last season56%needs 39% to break even | Record is last season's | -3.9Not beating its price |
| Under 59.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful: next up at RB | +105at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 49% to break even | Record is this season's | -5.3Not beating its price |
| Doesn't score a TDWoody Marks · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful: next up at RB | -103at Kalshi | 13 of 18· last season72%needs 51% to break even | Record is last season's | -6.0Not beating its price |
| Under 56.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful: next up at RB | -112at DraftKings | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 53% to break even | Record is this season's | -8.6Not beating its price |
| Under 52.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful: next up at RB | -114at FanDuel | 10 of 18· last season56%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.0Not beating its price |
| Over 79.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful: next up at RB | +198at Kalshi | 1 of 10· last 10 games10%needs 34% to break even | -26.9Not beating its price |
| Over 52.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful: next up at RB | -114at FanDuel | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 53% to break even | -27.0Not beating its price |
| Over 56.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful: next up at RB | -112at DraftKings | 8 of 18· last season44%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -31.1Not beating its price |
| Over 69.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful: next up at RB | +129at Kalshi | 3 of 15· last 15 games20%needs 44% to break even | -32.2Not beating its price |
| Over 59.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful: next up at RB | -126at Kalshi | 8 of 18· last season44%needs 56% to break even | Record is last season's | -33.5Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDWoody Marks · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful: next up at RB | -116at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 54% to break even | -33.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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