This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 51% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 51% to break even | 27%–86% | 9 points betterwon 60%, needs 51% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 51% to break even | 44%–87% | 19 points betterwon 70%, needs 51% |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 51% to break even | 52%–87% | 23 points betterwon 73%, needs 51% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 51% to break even | 35%–88% | 16 points betterwon 67%, needs 51% |
| Last season | 13 of 1872%needs 51% to break even | 53%–86% |
Tonight HOU plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against NYG. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Anytime TD in each game against no, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Anytime TD | Beat 0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores a TDWoody Marks · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 69.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · |
| Every game | 17 of 2471%needs 51% to break even | 54%–83% | 20 points betterwon 71%, needs 51% |
| Wk 5 | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 20 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 19 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 18 | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 17 | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| -116at Kalshi |
| 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 54% to break even |
| -33.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -175at Kalshi |
| 6 of 6· this season100%needs 64% to break even |
| Record is this season's |
| -1.1Not beating its price |
| Under 49.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful: next up at RB | +159at Kalshi | 10 of 18· last season56%needs 39% to break even | Record is last season's | -3.9Not beating its price |
| Under 59.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful: next up at RB | +105at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 49% to break even | Record is this season's | -5.3Not beating its price |
| Under 14.5 rush attemptsWoody Marks · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful: next up at RB | +134at Kalshi | 11 of 18· last season61%needs 43% to break even | Record is last season's | -7.2Not beating its price |
| Under 17.5 rush attemptsWoody Marks · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful: next up at RB | -199at Kalshi | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 67% to break even | Record is this season's | -8.2Not beating its price |
| Under 56.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful: next up at RB | -112at DraftKings | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 53% to break even | Record is this season's | -8.6Not beating its price |
| Under 52.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful: next up at RB | -114at FanDuel | 10 of 18· last season56%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.0Not beating its price |
| Over 17.5 rush attemptsWoody Marks · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful: next up at RB | +146at Kalshi | 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 41% to break even | -26.7Not beating its price |
| Over 79.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful: next up at RB | +198at Kalshi | 1 of 10· last 10 games10%needs 34% to break even | -26.9Not beating its price |
| Over 52.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful: next up at RB | -114at FanDuel | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 53% to break even | -27.0Not beating its price |
| Over 56.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful: next up at RB | -112at DraftKings | 8 of 18· last season44%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -31.1Not beating its price |
| Over 69.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful: next up at RB | +129at Kalshi | 3 of 15· last 15 games20%needs 44% to break even | -32.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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