This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 60% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 60% to break even | 44%–95% | 20 points betterwon 80%, needs 60% | 64.8total points |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 60% to break even | 44%–87% | 10 points betterwon 70%, needs 60% | 59.6total points |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 60% to break even | 39%–78% | evenwon 60%, needs 60% | 55.9total points |
| This season | 5 of 771%needs 60% to break even | 41%–90% | 11 points betterwon 71%, needs 60% | 61.6total points |
| Last season | 9 of 1369%needs 60% to break even | 46%–85% | 9 points betterwon 69%, needs 60% | 58.8total points |
| Every game | 14 of 2070%needs 60% to break even | 52%–84% | 10 points betterwon 70%, needs 60% | 59.8total points |
Tonight USC plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against WIS. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 6 of 7 on the road.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Total points in each game against over 47.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Total points | Beat 47.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 10 | 54 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Oct 3 | 46 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 26 | 68 | +20.5 | Won | |
| Sep 19 | 77 | +29.5 | Won | |
| Sep 12 | 79 | +31.5 | Won | |
| Sep 4 | 39 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 29 | 68 | +20.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 30 | 57 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Nov 29 | 39 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 22 | 69 | +21.5 | Won | |
| Nov 15 | 47 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 7 | 55 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Nov 1 | 38 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 18 | 58 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Oct 11 | 44 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | 66 | +18.5 | Won | |
| Sep 20 | 76 | +28.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | 50 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 6 | 79 | +31.5 | Won | |
| Aug 30 | 86 | +38.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 47.5 game total, USC gamesUSC Trojans · Today 7:30 PM ET | +126at Polymarket | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 44% to break even1 of 7 on the road | -24.7Not beating its price | ||
| Under 49.5 game total, USC gamesUSC Trojans · Today 7:30 PM ET | -105at Polymarket | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 51% to break even1 of 7 on the road | -30.3Not beating its price | ||
| Under 50.5 game total, USC gamesUSC Trojans · Today 7:30 PM ET | LVG-108at LowVig | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 52% to break even2 of 7 on the road | -29.8Not beating its price | ||
| Under 51.5 game total, USC gamesUSC Trojans · Today 7:30 PM ET | -134at Polymarket | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 57% to break even2 of 7 on the road | -34.0Not beating its price | ||
| Under 53.5 game total, USC gamesUSC Trojans · Today 7:30 PM ET | -164at Polymarket | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 62% to break even2 of 7 on the road | -37.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 23.5 team totalUSC Trojans · Today 7:30 PM ET | -164at Polymarket | 10 of 10· last 10 games100%needs 62% to break even6 of 7 on the road | Won last 12 in a row | 8.6Strong | |
| USC -3.5 spreadUSC Trojans · Today 7:30 PM ET | +121at Polymarket | 6 of 7· this season86%needs 45% to break even4 of 7 on the road | Record is this season's | 2.5Slight | |
| Over 26.5 team totalUSC Trojans · Today 7:30 PM ET | -109at Polymarket | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 52% to break even5 of 7 on the road | 1.9Slight | ||
| USC -3 spreadUSC Trojans · Today 7:30 PM ET | LVG+100at LowVig | 6 of 7· this season86%needs 50% to break even4 of 7 on the road | Record is this season's | -1.3Not beating its price | |
| USC -2.5 spreadUSC Trojans · Today 7:30 PM ET | -119at Polymarket | 6 of 7· this season86%needs 54% to break even4 of 7 on the road | Record is this season's | -4.8Not beating its price | |
| USC -6.5 spreadUSC Trojans · Today 7:30 PM ET | +149at Polymarket | 5 of 7· this season71%needs 40% to break even3 of 7 on the road | Record is this season's | -4.9Not beating its price | |
| USC -4.5 spreadUSC Trojans · Today 7:30 PM ET | +131at Polymarket | 5 of 7· this season71%needs 43% to break even3 of 7 on the road | Record is this season's | -5.1Not beating its price | |
| USC -5.5 spreadUSC Trojans · Today 7:30 PM ET | +143at Polymarket | 5 of 7· this season71%needs 41% to break even3 of 7 on the road | Record is this season's | -5.7Not beating its price | |
| USC -1.5 spreadUSC Trojans · Today 7:30 PM ET | -129at Polymarket | 6 of 7· this season86%needs 56% to break even4 of 7 on the road | Record is this season's | -6.4Not beating its price | |
| USC -7.5 spreadUSC Trojans · Today 7:30 PM ET | +185at Polymarket | 7 of 13· last season54%needs 35% to break even2 of 7 on the road | Record is last season's | -6.5Not beating its price | |
| USC to win moneylineUSC Trojans · Today 7:30 PM ET | NV-138at Novig | 6 of 7· this season86%needs 58% to break even4 of 7 on the road | Record is this season's | -7.7Not beating its price | |
| USC -0.5 spreadUSC Trojans · Today 7:30 PM ET | -145at Polymarket | 6 of 7· this season86%needs 59% to break even4 of 7 on the road | Record is this season's | -8.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.