This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 52% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 52% to break even | 5%–56% | 32 points shortwon 20%, needs 52% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 52% to break even | 13%–56% | 22 points shortwon 30%, needs 52% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 52% to break even | 22%–61% | 12 points shortwon 40%, needs 52% |
| This season | 2 of 729%needs 52% to break even | 10%–59% | 23 points shortwon 29%, needs 52% |
| Last season | 5 of 1338%needs 52% to break even | 20%–61% | 13 points shortwon 38%, needs 52% |
| Every game | 7 of 2035%needs 52% to break even | 20%–53% | 17 points shortwon 35%, needs 52% |
Tonight USC plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against WIS. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Total points in each game against under 50.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Total points | Beat 50.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 10 | 54 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 3 | 46 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Sep 26 | 68 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 19 | 77 | -26.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 12 | 79 | -28.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 4 | 39 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Aug 29 | 68 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 30 | 57 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 39 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Nov 22 | 69 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 15 | 47 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Nov 7 | 55 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 1 | 38 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Oct 18 | 58 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 11 | 44 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Sep 27 | 66 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | 76 | -25.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 13 | 50 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 6 | 79 | -28.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 30 | 86 | -35.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 50.5 game total, USC gamesUSC Trojans · Tomorrow 7:30 PM ET | NV+100at Novig | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 50% to break even | -7.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USC -3 spreadUSC Trojans · Tomorrow 7:30 PM ET | PX+101at ProphetX | 6 of 7· this season86%needs 50% to break even | Record is this season's | -1.1Not beating its price | |
| USC to win moneylineUSC Trojans · Tomorrow 7:30 PM ET | NV-138at Novig | 6 of 7· this season86%needs 58% to break even | Record is this season's | -7.7Not beating its price | |
| USC -0.5 1st half spreadUSC Trojans · Tomorrow 7:30 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 4 of 7· this season57%needs 55% to break even | Record is this season's | -25.6Not beating its price | |
| USC +0.5 1st half spreadUSC Trojans · Tomorrow 7:30 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 5 of 7· this season71%needs 65% to break even | Record is this season's | -28.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.