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Bets that have kept winning more often than their price says they should, strongest first. A trend ignores the opponent, and short runs can be luck.
| Last 10 games | Details | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Over 239.5 passing yardsPatrick Mahomes · KC @ SEA · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET · 10 more numbers in Details | |||||
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
Each record replays today's exact bet over that team's or player's recent games; ties don't count. The order rewards high win rates, more games and stretches that agree, and subtracts what the price expects. How trends work
| 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 42% to break even |
| 0.6Slight |
| 2 | Over 199.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones · IND @ MIN · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · 2 more numbers in Details | -103at Kalshi | 11 of 13· last season85%needs 51% to break even | Record is last season's | -3.3Not beating its price |
| 3 | Under 202.5 passing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · NYG @ HOU · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · 4 more numbers in Details | -111at DraftKings | 8 of 10· last season80%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -4.8Not beating its price |
| 4 | Under 219.5 passing yardsBaker Mayfield · TB @ CAR · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · 3 more numbers in DetailsListed questionable | -114at BetRivers | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even | -6.2Not beating its price |
| 5 | Over 274.5 passing yardsMatthew Stafford · LAR @ LV · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET · 5 more numbers in Details | +124at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 45% to break even | -6.8Not beating its price |
| 6 | Under 203.5 passing yardsSam Darnold · KC @ SEA · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET · 8 more numbers in Details | +145at Bovada | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 41% to break even | -8.3Not beating its price |
| 7 | Over 229.5 passing yardsTyler Shough · PIT @ NO · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET · 5 more numbers in Details | -113at DraftKings | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even | -8.5Not beating its price |
| 8 | Over 249.5 passing yardsDak Prescott · DAL @ PHI · Mon, Oct 26, 8:15 PM ET · 1 more number in Details | -175at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 64% to break even | -8.7Not beating its price |
| 9 | Under 215.5 passing yardsBo Nix · DEN @ ARI · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET · 4 more numbers in Details | -110at Fanatics | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 52% to break even | Record is this season's | -9.3Not beating its price |
| 10 | Under 187.5 passing yardsCam Ward · CLE @ TEN · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · 4 more numbers in Details | -113at DraftKings | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 53% to break even | Record is this season's | -9.4Not beating its price |
| 11 | Under 279.5 passing yardsJordan Love · GB @ DET · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET · 4 more numbers in Details | -112at BetOnline | 12 of 16· last season75%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.8Not beating its price |
| 12 | Over 274.5 passing yardsBryce Young · TB @ CAR · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · 4 more numbers in Details | +134at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 43% to break even | -13.9Not beating its price |
| 13 | Under 249.5 passing yardsKirk Cousins · LAR @ LV · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET · 5 more numbers in Details | -142at Kalshi | 9 of 10· last season90%needs 59% to break even | Record is last season's | -14.0Not beating its price |
| 14 | Under 224.5 passing yardsBrock Purdy · SF @ ATL · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · 5 more numbers in DetailsWithout Samuel (WR) | +129at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 44% to break even | -14.7Not beating its price |
| 15 | Under 262.5 passing yardsJoe Burrow · CIN @ BAL · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · 5 more numbers in Details | -113at DraftKings | 8 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped62%needs 53% to break even | -14.8Not beating its price |
| 16 | Over 233.5 passing yardsKirk Cousins · LAR @ LV · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET · 5 more numbers in Details | -115at BetRivers | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 53% to break even | -14.9Not beating its price |
| 17 | Over 299.5 passing yardsJared Goff · GB @ DET · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET · 4 more numbers in Details | +134at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 43% to break even | -14.9Not beating its price |
| 18 | Over 238.5 passing yardsJacoby Brissett · DEN @ ARI · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET · 4 more numbers in Details | -111at DraftKings | 10 of 14· last season71%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.4Not beating its price |
| 19 | Over 243.5 passing yardsSam Darnold · KC @ SEA · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET · 8 more numbers in Details | +140at Bovada | 10 of 20· last season50%needs 42% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.6Not beating its price |
| 20 | Under 221.5 passing yardsGeno Smith · MIA @ NYJ · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · 5 more numbers in Details | -111at DraftKings | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even | -15.8Not beating its price |
| 21 | Over 249.5 passing yardsBrock Purdy · SF @ ATL · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · 5 more numbers in DetailsWithout Samuel (WR) | +105at Kalshi | 6 of 11· last season55%needs 49% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.6Not beating its price |
| 22 | Under 274.5 passing yardsJared Goff · GB @ DET · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET · 4 more numbers in Details | +114at Kalshi | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 47% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.7Not beating its price |
| 23 | Under 274.5 passing yardsC.J. Stroud · NYG @ HOU · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · 4 more numbers in DetailsMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -175at Kalshi | 14 of 16· last season88%needs 64% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.9Not beating its price |
| 24 | Under 238.5 passing yardsAaron Rodgers · PIT @ NO · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET · 5 more numbers in DetailsWithout Skowronek (WR) | -113at DraftKings | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.9Not beating its price |
| 25 | Under 249.5 passing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · SF @ ATL · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · 5 more numbers in Details | -191at Kalshi | 9 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped69%needs 66% to break even | -17.3Not beating its price |
| 26 | Over 249.5 passing yardsAaron Rodgers · PIT @ NO · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET · 5 more numbers in DetailsWithout Skowronek (WR) | +140at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 42% to break even | -17.6Not beating its price |
| 27 | Under 249.5 passing yardsBryce Young · TB @ CAR · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · 4 more numbers in Details | +101at Kalshi | 13 of 17· last season76%needs 50% to break even | Record is last season's | -17.9Not beating its price |
| 28 | Over 256.5 passing yardsC.J. Stroud · NYG @ HOU · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · 4 more numbers in DetailsMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -110at DraftKings | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 52% to break even | Record is this season's | -18.8Not beating its price |
| 29 | Over 224.5 passing yardsMichael Penix Jr. · SF @ ATL · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · 5 more numbers in Details | -131at Kalshi | 3 of 4· this season75%needs 57% to break even | Record is this season's | -19.2Not beating its price |
| 30 | Over 274.5 passing yardsJoe Burrow · CIN @ BAL · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · 5 more numbers in Details | +114at Kalshi | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 47% to break even | -19.7Not beating its price |
| 31 | Over 214.5 passing yardsBaker Mayfield · TB @ CAR · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · 3 more numbers in DetailsListed questionable | -112at DraftKings | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -20.6Not beating its price |
| 32 | Over 275.5 passing yardsJordan Love · GB @ DET · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET · 4 more numbers in Details | -115at Fanatics | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 53% to break even | -21.9Not beating its price |
| 33 | Over 199.5 passing yardsCam Ward · CLE @ TEN · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · 4 more numbers in Details | +146at Kalshi | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 41% to break even | Record is last season's | -22.1Not beating its price |
| 34 | Over 224.5 passing yardsGeno Smith · MIA @ NYJ · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · 5 more numbers in Details | -103at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 51% to break even | -23.9Not beating its price |
| 35 | Under 199.5 passing yardsPatrick Mahomes · KC @ SEA · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET · 10 more numbers in Details | +146at Kalshi | 3 of 10· last 10 games30%needs 41% to break even | -25.1Not beating its price |
| 36 | Under 224.5 passing yardsTyler Shough · PIT @ NO · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET · 6 more numbers in Details | +119at Kalshi | 4 of 11· last season36%needs 46% to break even | Record is last season's | -25.4Not beating its price |
| 37 | Under 224.5 passing yardsJacoby Brissett · DEN @ ARI · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET · 5 more numbers in Details | -112at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 53% to break even | -25.7Not beating its price |
| 38 | Under 249.5 passing yardsDak Prescott · DAL @ PHI · Mon, Oct 26, 8:15 PM ET · 1 more number in Details | +129at Kalshi | 5 of 17· last season29%needs 44% to break even | Record is last season's | -28.7Not beating its price |
| 39 | Under 271.5 passing yardsMatthew Stafford · LAR @ LV · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET · 5 more numbers in Details | -112at DraftKings | 9 of 20· last season45%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -28.8Not beating its price |
| 40 | Over 224.5 passing yardsBo Nix · DEN @ ARI · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET · 5 more numbers in Details | -107at Kalshi | 9 of 18· last season50%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -29.2Not beating its price |
| 41 | Over 199.5 passing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · NYG @ HOU · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · 3 more numbers in Details | -112at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 53% to break even | -29.8Not beating its price |
| 42 | Under 196.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones · IND @ MIN · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · 2 more numbers in Details | -113at DraftKings | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 53% to break even | -33.5Not beating its price |