This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 46% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 46% to break even | 14%–73% | 6 points shortwon 40%, needs 46% |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 46% to break even | 7%–46% | 26 points shortwon 20%, needs 46% |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 1527%needs 46% to break even | 13%–48% | 19 points shortwon 27%, needs 46% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 46% to break even | 12%–65% | 12 points shortwon 33%, needs 46% |
| Last season | 4 of 1136%needs 46% to break even | 18%–61% | 9 points shortwon 36%, needs 46% |
| Every game |
Tonight NO plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against PIT. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Passing yards in each game against under 224.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 224.5 passing yardsTyler Shough |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 rushing yardsTyler Shough |
| 19%–55% |
| 10 points shortwon 35%, needs 46% |
| Won |
| Wk 4 | 286 | -61.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 255 | -30.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 252 | -27.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 410 | -185.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 259 | -34.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 333 | -108.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 308 | -83.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 272 | -47.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 144 | +80.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 239 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 243 | -18.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 282 | -57.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 176 | +48.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 128 | +96.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 0 | +224.5 | Won |
| -142at Kalshi |
| 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 59% to break even |
| -12.8Not beating its price |
| Over 225.5 passing yardsTyler Shough · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -115at Fanatics | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even | -8.8Not beating its price |
| Over 227.5 passing yardsTyler Shough · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -114at FanDuel | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even | -8.6Not beating its price |
| Over 229.5 passing yardsTyler Shough · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -113at DraftKings | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even | -8.5Not beating its price |
| Over 231.5 passing yardsTyler Shough · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -115at BetMGM | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even | -8.8Not beating its price |
| Over 234.5 passing yardsTyler Shough · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -117at BetRivers | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 54% to break even | -9.1Not beating its price |
| Over 249.5 passing yardsTyler Shough · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +152at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 40% to break even | -3.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +152at Kalshi |
| 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 40% to break even |
| -12.3Not beating its price |
| Under 9.5 rushing yardsTyler Shough · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +152at Kalshi | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 40% to break even | -12.5Not beating its price |
| Under 36.5 pass attemptsTyler Shough · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -112at Kalshi | 8 of 11· last season73%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.5Not beating its price |
| Over 23.5 completionsTyler Shough · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +105at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 49% to break even | -15.2Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 interceptions thrownTyler Shough · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +105at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 49% to break even | -16.7Not beating its price |
| Over 3.5 rush attemptsTyler Shough · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +101at Kalshi | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 50% to break even | -17.1Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 passing TDsTyler Shough · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +140at Kalshi | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 42% to break even | -18.5Not beating its price |
| Over 14.5 rushing yardsTyler Shough · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -103at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 51% to break even | -18.6Not beating its price |
| Over 16.5 rushing yardsTyler Shough · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -106at DraftKings | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 51% to break even | -19.2Not beating its price |
| Over 13.5 rushing yardsTyler Shough · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -114at FanDuel | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 53% to break even | -20.6Not beating its price |
| Under 13.5 rushing yardsTyler Shough · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -114at FanDuel | 6 of 11· last season55%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -21.6Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 passing TDsTyler Shough · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -175at Kalshi | 8 of 11· last season73%needs 64% to break even | Record is last season's | -21.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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