This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 52% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 52% to break even | 44%–95% | 28 points betterwon 80%, needs 52% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 52% to break even | 44%–87% | 18 points betterwon 70%, needs 52% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 52% to break even | 39%–78% | 8 points betterwon 60%, needs 52% |
| This season | 5 of 683%needs 52% to break even | 50%–96% | 31 points betterwon 83%, needs 52% |
| Last season | 9 of 1850%needs 52% to break even | 32%–68% | 2 points shortwon 50%, needs 52% |
Tonight DEN plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against ARI. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Passing yards in each game against under 215.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Passing yards | Beat 215.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 199.5 passing yardsBo Nix · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 11.5 rushing yardsBo Nix · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET |
| Every game | 14 of 2458%needs 52% to break even | 42%–73% | 6 points betterwon 58%, needs 52% |
| 107 |
| +108.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 5 | 123 | +92.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 214 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 186 | +29.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 288 | -72.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 131 | +84.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 20 | 279 | -63.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 18 | 141 | +74.5 | Won |
| Wk 17 | 182 | +33.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 352 | -136.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 302 | -86.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 212 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 321 | -105.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 295 | -79.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 150 | +65.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 173 | +42.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 247 | -31.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 279 | -63.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | 174 | +41.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 242 | -26.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 326 | -110.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 153 | +62.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 206 | +9.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 176 | +39.5 | Won |
| -199at Kalshi |
| 11 of 18· last season61%needs 67% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -34.0Not beating its price |
| Over 215.5 passing yardsBo Nix · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -120at Fanatics | 9 of 18· last season50%needs 55% to break even | Record is last season's | -31.5Not beating its price |
| Over 218.5 passing yardsBo Nix · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -122at BetRivers | 9 of 18· last season50%needs 55% to break even | Record is last season's | -31.9Not beating its price |
| Over 220.5 passing yardsBo Nix · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -112at DraftKings | 9 of 18· last season50%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -30.1Not beating its price |
| Over 221.5 passing yardsBo Nix · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 9 of 18· last season50%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -30.5Not beating its price |
| Over 224.5 passing yardsBo Nix · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 9 of 18· last season50%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -29.2Not beating its price |
| Over 249.5 passing yardsBo Nix · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +189at Kalshi | 7 of 18· last season39%needs 35% to break even | Record is last season's | -17.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -107at DraftKings |
| 6 of 6· this season100%needs 52% to break even |
| Record is this season's |
| -4.7Not beating its price |
| Under 10.5 rushing yardsBo Nix · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +100at Fanatics | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 50% to break even | Record is this season's | -6.7Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 passing TDsBo Nix · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -137at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 58% to break even | -6.8Not beating its price |
| Under 13.5 rushing yardsBo Nix · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -120at BetRivers | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 55% to break even | Record is this season's | -7.0Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 interceptions thrownBo Nix · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +119at Kalshi | 10 of 18· last season56%needs 46% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.4Not beating its price |
| Under 14.5 rushing yardsBo Nix · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -199at Kalshi | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 67% to break even | Record is this season's | -17.0Not beating its price |
| Over 9.5 rushing yardsBo Nix · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -126at Kalshi | 14 of 18· last season78%needs 56% to break even | Record is last season's | -18.0Not beating its price |
| Over 32.5 pass attemptsBo Nix · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 12 of 18· last season67%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.3Not beating its price |
| Over 21.5 completionsBo Nix · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 12 of 18· last season67%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.3Not beating its price |
| Over 14.5 rushing yardsBo Nix · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 12 of 18· last season67%needs 42% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.7Not beating its price |
| Under 21.5 completionsBo Nix · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 53% to break even | Record is this season's | -22.7Not beating its price |
| Under 32.5 pass attemptsBo Nix · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 54% to break even | Record is this season's | -23.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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