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Trends
Bets that have kept winning more often than their price says they should, strongest first. A trend ignores the opponent, and short runs can be luck.
| Last 10 games | Details | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Over 1.5 passing TDsMatthew Stafford · LAR @ LV · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET |  -131at Kalshi | 17 of 20· last season85%needs 57% to break even | Record is last season's | -4.7Not beating its price | |
| 2 | Under 1.5 passing TDsC.J. Stroud · NYG @ HOU · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | +134at Kalshi | 11 of 16· last season69%needs 43% to break even | Record is last season's | -4.9Not beating its price | |
| 3 | Over 1.5 passing TDsJacoby Brissett · DEN @ ARI · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 10 of 14· last season71%needs 44% to break even | Record is last season's | -5.3Not beating its price | |
| 4 | Under 1.5 passing TDsBo Nix · DEN @ ARI · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -137at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 58% to break even | -6.8Not beating its price | ||
| 5 | Under 1.5 passing TDsGeno Smith · MIA @ NYJ · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 57% to break even | -7.7Not beating its price | ||
| 6 | Over 1.5 passing TDsPatrick Mahomes · KC @ SEA · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +146at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 41% to break even | -9.2Not beating its price | ||
| 7 | Under 1.5 passing TDsMichael Penix Jr. · SF @ ATL · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -154at Kalshi | 10 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped77%needs 61% to break even | -10.6Not beating its price | ||
| 8 | Over 1.5 passing TDsKirk Cousins · LAR @ LV · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +101at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 50% to break even | Record is this season's | -11.1Not beating its price | |
| 9 | Over 1.5 passing TDsBrock Purdy · SF @ ATL · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -148at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 60% to break even | Record is this season's | -11.9Not beating its price | |
| 10 | Under 1.5 passing TDsDak Prescott · DAL @ PHI · Mon, Oct 26, 8:15 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 48% to break even | -12.0Not beating its price | ||
| 11 | Under 1.5 passing TDsBryce Young · TB @ CAR · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 47% to break even | Record is last season's | -17.8Not beating its price | |
| 12 | Under 1.5 passing TDsJoe Burrow · CIN @ BAL · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +146at Kalshi | 5 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped38%needs 41% to break even | -17.9Not beating its price | ||
| 13 | Under 1.5 passing TDsAaron Rodgers · PIT @ NO · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -112at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 53% to break even | -18.4Not beating its price | ||
| 14 | Over 1.5 passing TDsTyler Shough · PIT @ NO · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +140at Kalshi | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 42% to break even | -18.5Not beating its price | ||
| 15 | Over 1.5 passing TDsJordan Love · GB @ DET · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 65% to break even | Record is this season's | -19.4Not beating its price | |
| 16 | Over 1.5 passing TDsSam Darnold · KC @ SEA · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 9 of 20· last season45%needs 44% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.5Not beating its price | |
| 17 | Under 1.5 passing TDsJordan Love · GB @ DET · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +146at Kalshi | 8 of 16· last season50%needs 41% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.9Not beating its price | |
| 18 | Under 1.5 passing TDsSam Darnold · KC @ SEA · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 62% to break even | -20.1Not beating its price | ||
| 19 | Over 1.5 passing TDsJoe Burrow · CIN @ BAL · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 65% to break even | -20.1Not beating its price | ||
| 20 | Over 0.5 passing TDsCam Ward · CLE @ TEN · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -191at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 66% to break even | -20.9Not beating its price | ||
| 21 | Over 1.5 passing TDsAaron Rodgers · PIT @ NO · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -107at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 52% to break even | -21.4Not beating its price | ||
| 22 | Under 1.5 passing TDsTyler Shough · PIT @ NO · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -175at Kalshi | 8 of 11· last season73%needs 64% to break even | Record is last season's | -21.8Not beating its price | |
| 23 | Over 1.5 passing TDsBryce Young · TB @ CAR · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -148at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 60% to break even | -21.9Not beating its price | ||
| 24 | Under 1.5 passing TDsKirk Cousins · LAR @ LV · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last season70%needs 57% to break even | Record is last season's | -27.5Not beating its price | |
| 25 | Over 1.5 passing TDsMichael Penix Jr. · SF @ ATL · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 3 of 10· last 10 games30%needs 47% to break even | -27.8Not beating its price | ||
| 26 | Under 1.5 passing TDsBrock Purdy · SF @ ATL · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | +109at Kalshi | 4 of 11· last season36%needs 48% to break even | Record is last season's | -27.8Not beating its price | |
| 27 | Over 1.5 passing TDsDak Prescott · DAL @ PHI · Mon, Oct 26, 8:15 PM ET | -142at Kalshi | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 59% to break even | Record is last season's | -29.9Not beating its price | |
| 28 | Over 1.5 passing TDsGeno Smith · MIA @ NYJ · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 5 of 15· last season33%needs 48% to break even | Record is last season's | -29.9Not beating its price | |
| 29 | Under 1.5 passing TDsPatrick Mahomes · KC @ SEA · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -191at Kalshi | 9 of 14· last season64%needs 66% to break even | Record is last season's | -29.9Not beating its price | |
| 30 | Over 1.5 passing TDsBo Nix · DEN @ ARI · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +105at Kalshi | 7 of 18· last season39%needs 49% to break even | Record is last season's | -32.0Not beating its price | |
| 31 | Under 1.5 passing TDsMatthew Stafford · LAR @ LV · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 3 of 10· last 10 games30%needs 48% to break even | -32.8Not beating its price | ||
| 32 | Under 1.5 passing TDsJacoby Brissett · DEN @ ARI · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -168at Kalshi | 3 of 6· this season50%needs 63% to break even | Record is this season's | -36.3Not beating its price | |
| 33 | Over 1.5 passing TDsC.J. Stroud · NYG @ HOU · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -175at Kalshi | 3 of 6· this season50%needs 64% to break even | Record is this season's | -37.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
Each record replays today's exact bet over that team's or player's recent games; ties don't count. The order rewards high win rates, more games and stretches that agree, and subtracts what the price expects. How trends work