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NFLPlayer propPassing TDs
Joe Burrow over 1.5 passing tds
Won7 of 10last 10 games · 70%
Best price-183Kalshi
Price needs64.7%wins to break even
Every game8 of 13this season and last
Trend score-20.1Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 65% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 65% to break even | 27%–86% | 5 points shortwon 60%, needs 65% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 65% to break even | 44%–87% | 5 points betterwon 70%, needs 65% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1362%needs 65% to break even | 39%–80% | 3 points shortwon 62%, needs 65% |
| This season | 3 of 560%needs 65% to break even | 27%–86% | 5 points shortwon 60%, needs 65% |
| Last season | 5 of 863%needs 65% to break even | 35%–84% | 2 points shortwon 63%, needs 65% |
| Every game | 8 of 1362%needs 65% to break even | 39%–80% | 3 points shortwon 62%, needs 65% |
Games like tonight
Tonight CIN plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against BAL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Every book's price
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Joe Burrow over 1.5 passing tds1 book
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Passing TDs in each game against over 1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 passing TDsJoe Burrow · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |  +146at Kalshi | 5 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped38%needs 41% to break even | -17.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
More on Joe Burrow in this game
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.