This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 53% to break even | 44%–95% | 27 points betterwon 80%, needs 53% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 53% to break even | 19%–65% | 13 points shortwon 40%, needs 53% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 53% to break even | 17%–54% | 19 points shortwon 33%, needs 53% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 53% to break even | 35%–88% | 14 points betterwon 67%, needs 53% |
| Last season | 6 of 1735%needs 53% to break even | 19%–55% | 18 points shortwon 35%, needs 53% |
| Every game |
Tonight PIT plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against NO. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Passing TDs in each game against over 1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Passing TDs | Beat 1.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 passing TDsAaron Rodgers |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 238.5 passing yardsAaron Rodgers |
| 28%–60% |
| 9 points shortwon 43%, needs 53% |
| 2 |
| +0.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 5 | 3 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 3 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 3 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 18 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 17 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 4 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 4 | +2.5 | Won |
| -107at Kalshi |
| 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 52% to break even |
| -17.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -113at DraftKings |
| 12 of 17· last season71%needs 53% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -16.9Not beating its price |
| Under 236.5 passing yardsAaron Rodgers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -115at BetMGM | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -17.3Not beating its price |
| Under 199.5 passing yardsAaron Rodgers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +189at Kalshi | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 35% to break even | -17.5Not beating its price |
| Under 235.5 passing yardsAaron Rodgers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -117at BetRivers | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -17.6Not beating its price |
| Over 249.5 passing yardsAaron Rodgers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +140at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 42% to break even | -17.6Not beating its price |
| Under 224.5 passing yardsAaron Rodgers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +114at Kalshi | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 47% to break even | Record is last season's | -18.0Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 rushing yardsAaron Rodgers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -108at FanDuel | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 52% to break even | -18.3Not beating its price |
| Over 233.5 passing yardsAaron Rodgers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -114at FanDuel | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even | -18.4Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 interceptions thrownAaron Rodgers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -103at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 51% to break even | -19.4Not beating its price |
| Over 22.5 completionsAaron Rodgers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +109at Kalshi | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 48% to break even | -20.0Not beating its price |
| Over 34.5 pass attemptsAaron Rodgers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -116at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 54% to break even | -20.1Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 rushing yardsAaron Rodgers · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -110at DraftKings | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 52% to break even | -20.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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