This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 38% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 38% to break even | 14%–73% | 2 points betterwon 40%, needs 38% | 148.2total points |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 38% to break even | 7%–46% | 18 points shortwon 20%, needs 38% | 159.9total points |
| Last 15 games | 2 of 1513%needs 38% to break even | 5%–33% | 24 points shortwon 13%, needs 38% | 165.4total points |
| This season | 2 of 534%needs 38% to break even | 1%–11% | 34 points shortwon 4%, needs 38% | 173.3total points |
| Last season | 8 of 4717%needs 38% to break even | 10%–28% | 21 points shortwon 17%, needs 38% | 160.6total points |
| Every game | 10 of 10010%needs 38% to break even | 6%–16% | 28 points shortwon 10%, needs 38% | 167.3total points |
Tonight ATL plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against GS. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last, each on its own: 3 of 10 against GS · 6 of 49 on the road.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Total points in each game against under 142.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Total points | Beat 142.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 24 | 129 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Oct 21 | 168 | -25.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 19 | 144 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 17 | 132 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Oct 9 | 168 | -25.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 7 | 199 | -56.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 4 | 174 | -31.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 30 | 168 | -25.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | 169 | -26.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 23 | 148 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 21 | 179 | -36.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 19 | 187 | -44.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 17 | 162 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 30 | 170 | -27.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 28 | 184 | -41.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 24 | 149 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 22 | 188 | -45.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 20 | 212 | -69.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 18 | 179 | -36.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 16 | 186 | -43.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 13 | 173 | -30.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 10 | 202 | -59.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 7 | 153 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 5 | 178 | -35.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 3 | 196 | -53.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 31 | 187 | -44.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 29 | 163 | -20.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 19 | 184 | -41.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 17 | 203 | -60.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 13 | 193 | -50.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 11 | 194 | -51.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 9 | 167 | -24.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 4 | 171 | -28.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 2 | 157 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 27 | 195 | -52.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 26 | 153 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 24 | 143 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 22 | 181 | -38.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 20 | 209 | -66.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 18 | 209 | -66.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 14 | 179 | -36.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 11 | 194 | -51.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 9 | 157 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 6 | 186 | -43.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 4 | 154 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 2 | 166 | -23.5 | Lost | |
| May 29 | 152 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| May 27 | 177 | -34.5 | Lost | |
| May 24 | 162 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| May 22 | 155 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| May 17 | 169 | -26.5 | Lost | |
| May 12 | 149 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| May 9 | 181 | -38.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Sep 18 | 172 | -29.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 16 | 137 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Sep 14 | 148 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 10 | 160 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 8 | 149 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 5 | 189 | -46.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 3 | 161 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 1 | 169 | -26.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 29 | 178 | -35.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 27 | 156 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 23 | 140 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Aug 21 | 148 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 19 | 146 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 17 | 142 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 15 | 158 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 13 | 160 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 10 | 140 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Aug 7 | 151 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 3 | 182 | -39.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 1 | 167 | -24.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 30 | 173 | -30.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 29 | 152 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 27 | 176 | -33.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 23 | 169 | -26.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 22 | 159 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 16 | 135 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Jul 13 | 151 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 11 | 181 | -38.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 7 | 171 | -28.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 3 | 159 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 29 | 171 | -28.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 27 | 188 | -45.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 24 | 123 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Jun 22 | 173 | -30.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 20 | 183 | -40.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 17 | 167 | -24.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 15 | 145 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 13 | 158 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 10 | 135 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Jun 6 | 160 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| May 30 | 181 | -38.5 | Lost | |
| May 27 | 170 | -27.5 | Lost | |
| May 25 | 134 | +8.5 | Won | |
| May 24 | 158 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| May 22 | 157 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| May 20 | 181 | -38.5 | Lost | |
| May 16 | 184 | -41.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 145.5 game total, ATL gamesAtlanta Dream · Tomorrow 8:00 PM ET | -168at Kalshi | 49 of 53· this season92%needs 63% to break even5 of 10 against GS · 40 of 49 on the road | Record is this season's | -7.7Not beating its price | |
| Over 148.5 game total, ATL gamesAtlanta Dream · Tomorrow 8:00 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 48 of 53· this season91%needs 55% to break even5 of 10 against GS · 38 of 49 on the road | Record is this season's | -5.7Not beating its price | |
| Over 150.5 game total, ATL gamesAtlanta Dream · Tomorrow 8:00 PM ET | +103at Polymarket | 46 of 53· this season87%needs 49% to break even5 of 10 against GS · 36 of 49 on the road | Record is this season's | -1.5Not beating its price | |
| Over 151.5 game total, ATL gamesAtlanta Dream · Tomorrow 8:00 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 46 of 53· this season87%needs 47% to break even5 of 10 against GS · 34 of 49 on the road | Record is this season's | 0.1Slight | |
| Over 154.5 game total, ATL gamesAtlanta Dream · Tomorrow 8:00 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 42 of 53· this season79%needs 43% to break even3 of 10 against GS · 30 of 49 on the road | Record is this season's | 2.0Slight | |
| Over 157.5 game total, ATL gamesAtlanta Dream · Tomorrow 8:00 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 39 of 53· this season74%needs 36% to break even3 of 10 against GS · 28 of 49 on the road | Record is this season's | 7.3Good |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL to win moneylineAtlanta Dream · Tomorrow 8:00 PM ET | +103at Polymarket | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 49% to break even4 of 10 against GS · 32 of 49 on the road | 2.6Slight | ||
| ATL -1.5 spreadAtlanta Dream · Tomorrow 8:00 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 48% to break even4 of 10 against GS · 29 of 49 on the road | 2.6Slight | ||
| ATL +1.5 spreadAtlanta Dream · Tomorrow 8:00 PM ET | -109at Polymarket | 38 of 53· this season72%needs 52% to break even4 of 10 against GS · 32 of 49 on the road | Record is this season's | 0.5Slight | |
| ATL -3.5 spreadAtlanta Dream · Tomorrow 8:00 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 31 of 53· this season58%needs 42% to break even4 of 10 against GS · 27 of 49 on the road | Record is this season's | -3.0Not beating its price | |
| ATL +3.5 spreadAtlanta Dream · Tomorrow 8:00 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 36 of 47· last season77%needs 62% to break even6 of 10 against GS · 34 of 49 on the road | Record is last season's | -6.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.