This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 55% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 55% to break even | 14%–73% | 15 points shortwon 40%, needs 55% | 148.2total points |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 55% to break even | 35%–81% | 5 points betterwon 60%, needs 55% | 159.9total points |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 55% to break even | 52%–87% | 19 points betterwon 73%, needs 55% | 165.4total points |
| This season | 48 of 5391%needs 55% to break even | 82%–95% | 36 points betterwon 91%, needs 55% | 173.3total points |
| Last season | 35 of 4774%needs 55% to break even | 63%–83% | 20 points betterwon 74%, needs 55% | 160.6total points |
| Every game | 83 of 10083%needs 55% to break even | 76%–88% | 28 points betterwon 83%, needs 55% | 167.3total points |
Tonight ATL plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against GS. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last, each on its own: 5 of 10 against GS · 38 of 49 on the road.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Total points in each game against over 148.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Total points | Beat 148.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 24 | 129 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 21 | 168 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Oct 19 | 144 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 17 | 132 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 9 | 168 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Oct 7 | 199 | +50.5 | Won | |
| Oct 4 | 174 | +25.5 | Won | |
| Sep 30 | 168 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Sep 27 | 169 | +20.5 | Won | |
| Sep 23 | 148 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 21 | 179 | +30.5 | Won | |
| Sep 19 | 187 | +38.5 | Won | |
| Sep 17 | 162 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Aug 30 | 170 | +21.5 | Won | |
| Aug 28 | 184 | +35.5 | Won | |
| Aug 24 | 149 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 22 | 188 | +39.5 | Won | |
| Aug 20 | 212 | +63.5 | Won | |
| Aug 18 | 179 | +30.5 | Won | |
| Aug 16 | 186 | +37.5 | Won | |
| Aug 13 | 173 | +24.5 | Won | |
| Aug 10 | 202 | +53.5 | Won | |
| Aug 7 | 153 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Aug 5 | 178 | +29.5 | Won | |
| Aug 3 | 196 | +47.5 | Won | |
| Jul 31 | 187 | +38.5 | Won | |
| Jul 29 | 163 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Jul 19 | 184 | +35.5 | Won | |
| Jul 17 | 203 | +54.5 | Won | |
| Jul 13 | 193 | +44.5 | Won | |
| Jul 11 | 194 | +45.5 | Won | |
| Jul 9 | 167 | +18.5 | Won | |
| Jul 4 | 171 | +22.5 | Won | |
| Jul 2 | 157 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Jun 27 | 195 | +46.5 | Won | |
| Jun 26 | 153 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Jun 24 | 143 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 22 | 181 | +32.5 | Won | |
| Jun 20 | 209 | +60.5 | Won | |
| Jun 18 | 209 | +60.5 | Won | |
| Jun 14 | 179 | +30.5 | Won | |
| Jun 11 | 194 | +45.5 | Won | |
| Jun 9 | 157 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Jun 6 | 186 | +37.5 | Won | |
| Jun 4 | 154 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Jun 2 | 166 | +17.5 | Won | |
| May 29 | 152 | +3.5 | Won | |
| May 27 | 177 | +28.5 | Won | |
| May 24 | 162 | +13.5 | Won | |
| May 22 | 155 | +6.5 | Won | |
| May 17 | 169 | +20.5 | Won | |
| May 12 | 149 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 9 | 181 | +32.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Sep 18 | 172 | +23.5 | Won | |
| Sep 16 | 137 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 14 | 148 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 10 | 160 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Sep 8 | 149 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 5 | 189 | +40.5 | Won | |
| Sep 3 | 161 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Sep 1 | 169 | +20.5 | Won | |
| Aug 29 | 178 | +29.5 | Won | |
| Aug 27 | 156 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Aug 23 | 140 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 21 | 148 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 19 | 146 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 17 | 142 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 15 | 158 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Aug 13 | 160 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Aug 10 | 140 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 7 | 151 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Aug 3 | 182 | +33.5 | Won | |
| Aug 1 | 167 | +18.5 | Won | |
| Jul 30 | 173 | +24.5 | Won | |
| Jul 29 | 152 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jul 27 | 176 | +27.5 | Won | |
| Jul 23 | 169 | +20.5 | Won | |
| Jul 22 | 159 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Jul 16 | 135 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 13 | 151 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jul 11 | 181 | +32.5 | Won | |
| Jul 7 | 171 | +22.5 | Won | |
| Jul 3 | 159 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Jun 29 | 171 | +22.5 | Won | |
| Jun 27 | 188 | +39.5 | Won | |
| Jun 24 | 123 | -25.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 22 | 173 | +24.5 | Won | |
| Jun 20 | 183 | +34.5 | Won | |
| Jun 17 | 167 | +18.5 | Won | |
| Jun 15 | 145 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 13 | 158 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Jun 10 | 135 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 6 | 160 | +11.5 | Won | |
| May 30 | 181 | +32.5 | Won | |
| May 27 | 170 | +21.5 | Won | |
| May 25 | 134 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| May 24 | 158 | +9.5 | Won | |
| May 22 | 157 | +8.5 | Won | |
| May 20 | 181 | +32.5 | Won | |
| May 16 | 184 | +35.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 142.5 game total, ATL gamesAtlanta Dream · Tomorrow 8:00 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 38% to break even3 of 10 against GS · 6 of 49 on the road | -29.0Not beating its price | ||
| Under 145.5 game total, ATL gamesAtlanta Dream · Tomorrow 8:00 PM ET | +124at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 45% to break even5 of 10 against GS · 9 of 49 on the road | -31.0Not beating its price | ||
| Under 148.5 game total, ATL gamesAtlanta Dream · Tomorrow 8:00 PM ET | +101at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 50% to break even5 of 10 against GS · 11 of 49 on the road | -32.0Not beating its price | ||
| Under 150.5 game total, ATL gamesAtlanta Dream · Tomorrow 8:00 PM ET | -119at Polymarket | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 54% to break even5 of 10 against GS · 13 of 49 on the road | -35.7Not beating its price | ||
| Under 151.5 game total, ATL gamesAtlanta Dream · Tomorrow 8:00 PM ET | -137at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 58% to break even5 of 10 against GS · 15 of 49 on the road | -38.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL to win moneylineAtlanta Dream · Tomorrow 8:00 PM ET | +107at Polymarket | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 48% to break even4 of 10 against GS · 32 of 49 on the road | 3.5Good | ||
| ATL -1.5 spreadAtlanta Dream · Tomorrow 8:00 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 48% to break even4 of 10 against GS · 29 of 49 on the road | 2.6Slight | ||
| ATL +1.5 spreadAtlanta Dream · Tomorrow 8:00 PM ET | -109at Polymarket | 38 of 53· this season72%needs 52% to break even4 of 10 against GS · 32 of 49 on the road | Record is this season's | 0.5Slight | |
| ATL -3.5 spreadAtlanta Dream · Tomorrow 8:00 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 31 of 53· this season58%needs 44% to break even4 of 10 against GS · 27 of 49 on the road | Record is this season's | -4.9Not beating its price | |
| ATL +3.5 spreadAtlanta Dream · Tomorrow 8:00 PM ET | -154at Kalshi | 36 of 47· last season77%needs 61% to break even6 of 10 against GS · 34 of 49 on the road | Record is last season's | -5.5Not beating its price | |
| ATL -0.5 1st half spreadAtlanta Dream · Tomorrow 8:00 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 30 of 47· last season64%needs 52% to break even3 of 10 against GS · 29 of 49 on the road | Record is last season's | -9.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.