This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 53% to break even | 5%–56% | 33 points shortwon 20%, needs 53% | 224.8passing yards |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 53% to break even | 19%–65% | 13 points shortwon 40%, needs 53% | 198.7passing yards |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 1527%needs 53% to break even | 13%–48% | 27 points shortwon 27%, needs 53% | 220.9passing yards |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 53% to break even | 12%–65% | 20 points shortwon 33%, needs 53% | 215passing yards |
| Last season | 2 of 1315% |
Tonight IND plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against MIN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 3 of 9 on the road. Tonight: MIN allows 195.4 passing yards a game to quarterbacks, the 3rd fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 236.1): an easy matchup for this bet. How MIN defends quarterbacks
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Passing yards in each game against under 191.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Passing yards | Beat 191.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 5%–37% |
| 38 points shortwon 15%, needs 53% |
| 238.5passing yards |
| Every game | 4 of 1921%needs 53% to break even | 10%–40% | 32 points shortwon 21%, needs 53% | 231.1passing yards |
| 269 |
| -77.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 5 | 267 | -75.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 143 | +48.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 235 | -43.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 210 | -18.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 166 | +25.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 14 | 60 | +131.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 201 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 181 | +10.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | 255 | -63.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 342 | -150.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | 272 | -80.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 288 | -96.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | 212 | -20.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 | 212 | -20.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 262 | -70.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 228 | -36.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 316 | -124.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 272 | -80.5 | Lost |
| -185at DraftKings |
| 12 of 13· last season92%needs 65% to break even7 of 9 on the road |
| Record is last season's |
| -10.2Not beating its price |
| Over 174.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -160at Fanatics | 12 of 13· last season92%needs 62% to break even7 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -7.5Not beating its price |
| Over 177.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -152at BetOnline | 12 of 13· last season92%needs 60% to break even7 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -6.5Not beating its price |
| Over 179.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -140at DraftKings | 12 of 13· last season92%needs 58% to break even7 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -5.0Not beating its price |
| Over 187.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -113at DraftKings | 11 of 13· last season85%needs 53% to break even6 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -5.1Not beating its price |
| Over 189.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -107at DraftKings | 11 of 13· last season85%needs 52% to break even6 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -4.1Not beating its price |
| Over 191.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -115at BetRivers | 11 of 13· last season85%needs 53% to break even6 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -5.5Not beating its price |
| Over 197.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +108at BetOnline | 11 of 13· last season85%needs 48% to break even6 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -1.2Not beating its price |
| Over 199.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +129at Kalshi | 11 of 13· last season85%needs 44% to break even6 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | 2.3Slight |
| Over 207.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +132at BetOnline | 10 of 13· last season77%needs 43% to break even6 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -1.3Not beating its price |
| Over 209.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +156at DraftKings | 10 of 13· last season77%needs 39% to break even6 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | 1.9Slight |
| Over 217.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +161at BetOnline | 8 of 13· last season62%needs 38% to break even5 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -8.4Not beating its price |
| Over 219.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +203at DraftKings | 8 of 13· last season62%needs 33% to break even5 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -4.2Not beating its price |
| Over 227.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +196at BetOnline | 8 of 13· last season62%needs 34% to break even5 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -4.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +160at DraftKings |
| 9 of 13· last season69%needs 38% to break even6 of 9 on the road |
| Record is last season's |
| -0.1Not beating its price |
| Over 196.5 pass + rush yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -114at DraftKings | 12 of 13· last season92%needs 53% to break even7 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -1.0Not beating its price |
| Over 21.5 completionsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +210at BetRivers | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 32% to break even5 of 9 on the road | -2.3Not beating its price |
| Over 209.5 pass + rush yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +124at DraftKings | 10 of 13· last season77%needs 45% to break even6 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -2.5Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +850at BetRivers | 4 of 13· last season31%needs 11% to break even2 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -2.6Not beating its price |
| Over 199.5 pass + rush yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -105at DraftKings | 11 of 13· last season85%needs 51% to break even6 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -3.7Not beating its price |
| Over 224.5 pass + rush yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +174at FanDuel | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 36% to break even5 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -4.6Not beating its price |
| Over 189.5 pass + rush yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -138at DraftKings | 12 of 13· last season92%needs 58% to break even7 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -4.7Not beating its price |
| Over 198.5 pass + rush yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -114at FanDuel | 11 of 13· last season85%needs 53% to break even6 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -5.3Not beating its price |
| Over 203.5 pass + rush yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -114at BetRivers | 10 of 13· last season77%needs 53% to break even6 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -9.3Not beating its price |
| Over 179.5 pass + rush yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -181at DraftKings | 12 of 13· last season92%needs 64% to break even7 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -9.8Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 completionsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +105at BetRivers | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 49% to break even5 of 9 on the road | -10.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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