This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 39% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 39% to break even | 44%–95% | 41 points betterwon 80%, needs 39% | 224.8passing yards |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 39% to break even | 27%–73% | 11 points betterwon 50%, needs 39% | 198.7passing yards |
| Last 15 games | 10 of 1567%needs 39% to break even | 46%–83% | 28 points betterwon 67%, needs 39% | 220.9passing yards |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 39% to break even | 35%–88% | 28 points betterwon 67%, needs 39% | 215passing yards |
| Last season |
Tonight IND plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against MIN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 6 of 9 on the road. Tonight: MIN allows 195.4 passing yards a game to quarterbacks, the 3rd fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 236.1): a tough matchup for this bet. How MIN defends quarterbacks
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Passing yards in each game against over 209.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Passing yards | Beat 209.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 54%–90% |
| 38 points betterwon 77%, needs 39% |
| 238.5passing yards |
| Every game | 14 of 1974%needs 39% to break even | 55%–87% | 35 points betterwon 74%, needs 39% | 231.1passing yards |
| Wk 6 |
| 269 |
| +59.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 5 | 267 | +57.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 143 | -66.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 235 | +25.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 210 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 166 | -43.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 14 | 60 | -149.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 201 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 181 | -28.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 255 | +45.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 342 | +132.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 272 | +62.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 288 | +78.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 212 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 212 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 262 | +52.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 228 | +18.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 316 | +106.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 272 | +62.5 | Won |
| -111at DraftKings |
| 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 53% to break even3 of 9 on the road |
| -33.1Not beating its price |
| Under 189.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -114at FanDuel | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 53% to break even3 of 9 on the road | -33.7Not beating its price |
| Under 191.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -115at BetRivers | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 53% to break even3 of 9 on the road | -33.8Not beating its price |
| Under 199.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -154at Kalshi | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 61% to break even3 of 9 on the road | -39.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +160at DraftKings |
| 9 of 13· last season69%needs 38% to break even6 of 9 on the road |
| Record is last season's |
| -0.1Not beating its price |
| Over 196.5 pass + rush yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -114at DraftKings | 12 of 13· last season92%needs 53% to break even7 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -1.0Not beating its price |
| Over 21.5 completionsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +210at BetRivers | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 32% to break even5 of 9 on the road | -2.3Not beating its price |
| Over 209.5 pass + rush yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +124at DraftKings | 10 of 13· last season77%needs 45% to break even6 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -2.5Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +850at BetRivers | 4 of 13· last season31%needs 11% to break even2 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -2.6Not beating its price |
| Over 199.5 pass + rush yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -105at DraftKings | 11 of 13· last season85%needs 51% to break even6 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -3.7Not beating its price |
| Over 224.5 pass + rush yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +174at FanDuel | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 36% to break even5 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -4.6Not beating its price |
| Over 189.5 pass + rush yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -138at DraftKings | 12 of 13· last season92%needs 58% to break even7 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -4.7Not beating its price |
| Over 198.5 pass + rush yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -114at FanDuel | 11 of 13· last season85%needs 53% to break even6 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -5.3Not beating its price |
| Over 203.5 pass + rush yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -114at BetRivers | 10 of 13· last season77%needs 53% to break even6 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -9.3Not beating its price |
| Over 179.5 pass + rush yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -181at DraftKings | 12 of 13· last season92%needs 64% to break even7 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -9.8Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 completionsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +105at BetRivers | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 49% to break even5 of 9 on the road | -10.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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