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NFLPlayer propPassing yards
Daniel Jones over 217.5 passing yards
Won8 of 13last season · 62%
Best price+161BetOnline
Price needs38.3%wins to break even
Every game11 of 19this season and last
Trend score-8.4Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 38% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 38% to break even | 27%–86% | 22 points betterwon 60%, needs 38% | 224.8passing yards |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 38% to break even | 19%–65% | 2 points betterwon 40%, needs 38% | 198.7passing yards |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 38% to break even | 28%–67% | 8 points betterwon 47%, needs 38% | 220.9passing yards |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 38% to break even | 22%–78% | 12 points betterwon 50%, needs 38% | 215passing yards |
| Last season | 8 of 1362%needs 38% to break even | 39%–80% | 23 points betterwon 62%, needs 38% | 238.5passing yards |
| Every game | 11 of 1958%needs 38% to break even | 39%–74% | 20 points betterwon 58%, needs 38% | 231.1passing yards |
Games like tonight
Tonight IND plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against MIN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 5 of 9 on the road. Tonight: MIN allows 195.4 passing yards a game to quarterbacks, the 3rd fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 236.1): a tough matchup for this bet. How MIN defends quarterbacks
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Every book's price
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Daniel Jones over 217.5 passing yards1 book
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Passing yards in each game against over 217.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Passing yards | Beat 217.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 |  TEN | 269 | +51.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 |  PIT | 267 | +49.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 |  WSH | 143 | -74.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 |  HOU | 235 | +17.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 |  KC | 210 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 |  BAL | 166 | -51.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 14 |  JAX | 60 | -157.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | HOU | 201 | -16.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | KC | 181 | -36.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 |  ATL | 255 | +37.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | PIT | 342 | +124.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | TEN | 272 | +54.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 |  LAC | 288 | +70.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 |  ARI | 212 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 |  LV | 212 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 |  LAR | 262 | +44.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | TEN | 228 | +10.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 |  DEN | 316 | +98.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 |  MIA | 272 | +54.5 | Won |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 187.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) |  -111at DraftKings | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 53% to break even3 of 9 on the road | -33.1Not beating its price | ||
| Under 189.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) |  -114at FanDuel | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 53% to break even3 of 9 on the road | -33.7Not beating its price | ||
| Under 191.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) |  -115at BetRivers | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 53% to break even3 of 9 on the road | -33.8Not beating its price | ||
| Under 199.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) |  -148at Kalshi | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 60% to break even3 of 9 on the road | -38.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
More on Daniel Jones in this game
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 219.5 pass + rush yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +160at DraftKings | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 38% to break even6 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -0.1Not beating its price | |
| Over 196.5 pass + rush yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -114at DraftKings | 12 of 13· last season92%needs 53% to break even7 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -1.0Not beating its price | |
| Over 21.5 completionsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +210at BetRivers | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 32% to break even5 of 9 on the road | -2.3Not beating its price | ||
| Over 209.5 pass + rush yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +124at DraftKings | 10 of 13· last season77%needs 45% to break even6 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -2.5Not beating its price | |
| Scores a TDDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +850at BetRivers | 4 of 13· last season31%needs 11% to break even2 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -2.6Not beating its price | |
| Over 199.5 pass + rush yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -105at DraftKings | 11 of 13· last season85%needs 51% to break even6 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -3.7Not beating its price | |
| Over 224.5 pass + rush yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +174at FanDuel | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 36% to break even5 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -4.6Not beating its price | |
| Over 189.5 pass + rush yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -138at DraftKings | 12 of 13· last season92%needs 58% to break even7 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -4.7Not beating its price | |
| Over 198.5 pass + rush yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -114at FanDuel | 11 of 13· last season85%needs 53% to break even6 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -5.3Not beating its price | |
| Over 203.5 pass + rush yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -114at BetRivers | 10 of 13· last season77%needs 53% to break even6 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -9.3Not beating its price | |
| Over 179.5 pass + rush yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -181at DraftKings | 12 of 13· last season92%needs 64% to break even7 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -9.8Not beating its price | |
| Over 19.5 completionsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +105at BetRivers | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 49% to break even5 of 9 on the road | -10.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.