This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 36% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 36% to break even | 27%–86% | 24 points betterwon 60%, needs 36% | 235passing and rushing yards |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 36% to break even | 19%–65% | 4 points betterwon 40%, needs 36% | 211.6passing and rushing yards |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 36% to break even | 33%–72% | 17 points betterwon 53%, needs 36% | 231.9passing and rushing yards |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 36% to break even | 22%–78% | 14 points betterwon 50%, needs 36% | 224.2passing and rushing yards |
Tonight IND plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against MIN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 5 of 9 on the road. Tonight: MIN allows 209 passing and rushing yards a game to quarterbacks, the 3rd fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 253.4): a tough matchup for this bet. How MIN defends quarterbacks
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pass + rush yards in each game against over 224.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Pass + rush yards | Beat 224.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| Last season | 9 of 1369%needs 36% to break even | 46%–85% | 33 points betterwon 69%, needs 36% | 251.2passing and rushing yards |
| Every game | 12 of 1963%needs 36% to break even | 44%–79% | 27 points betterwon 63%, needs 36% | 242.6passing and rushing yards |
| Wk 6 | 299 | +74.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 271 | +46.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 145 | -79.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 240 | +15.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 220 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 170 | -54.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 14 | 64 | -160.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 202 | -22.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 197 | -27.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 308 | +83.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 346 | +121.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 275 | +50.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 295 | +70.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 232 | +7.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 214 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 261 | +36.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 255 | +30.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 318 | +93.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 298 | +73.5 | Won |
| -112at DraftKings |
| 3 of 10· last 10 games30%needs 53% to break even2 of 9 on the road |
| -35.8Not beating its price |
| Under 198.5 pass + rush yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -114at FanDuel | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 53% to break even3 of 9 on the road | -33.7Not beating its price |
| Under 203.5 pass + rush yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -115at BetRivers | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 53% to break even3 of 9 on the road | -31.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +129at Kalshi |
| 11 of 13· last season85%needs 44% to break even6 of 9 on the road |
| Record is last season's |
| 2.3Slight |
| Over 209.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +156at DraftKings | 10 of 13· last season77%needs 39% to break even6 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | 1.9Slight |
| Over 197.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +108at BetOnline | 11 of 13· last season85%needs 48% to break even6 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -1.2Not beating its price |
| Over 207.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +132at BetOnline | 10 of 13· last season77%needs 43% to break even6 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -1.3Not beating its price |
| Over 21.5 completionsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +210at BetRivers | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 32% to break even5 of 9 on the road | -2.3Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +850at BetRivers | 4 of 13· last season31%needs 11% to break even2 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -2.6Not beating its price |
| Over 189.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -107at DraftKings | 11 of 13· last season85%needs 52% to break even6 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -4.1Not beating its price |
| Over 219.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +203at DraftKings | 8 of 13· last season62%needs 33% to break even5 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -4.2Not beating its price |
| Over 227.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +196at BetOnline | 8 of 13· last season62%needs 34% to break even5 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -4.8Not beating its price |
| Over 179.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -140at DraftKings | 12 of 13· last season92%needs 58% to break even7 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -5.0Not beating its price |
| Over 187.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -113at DraftKings | 11 of 13· last season85%needs 53% to break even6 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -5.1Not beating its price |
| Over 191.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -115at BetRivers | 11 of 13· last season85%needs 53% to break even6 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -5.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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