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NFLPlayer propCompletions
Daniel Jones over 21.5 completions
Won4 of 5last 5 games · 80%
Best price+210BetRivers
Price needs32.3%wins to break even
Every game10 of 19this season and last
Trend score-2.3Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 32% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 32% to break even | 44%–95% | 48 points betterwon 80%, needs 32% | 22.2completions |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 32% to break even | 19%–65% | 8 points betterwon 40%, needs 32% | 18.7completions |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 32% to break even | 28%–67% | 14 points betterwon 47%, needs 32% | 20.3completions |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 32% to break even | 35%–88% | 34 points betterwon 67%, needs 32% | 21.7completions |
| Last season | 6 of 1346%needs 32% to break even | 26%–68% | 14 points betterwon 46%, needs 32% | 20.1completions |
| Every game | 10 of 1953%needs 32% to break even | 35%–70% | 20 points betterwon 53%, needs 32% | 20.6completions |
Games like tonight
Tonight IND plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against MIN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 5 of 9 on the road. Tonight: MIN allows 16.6 completions a game to quarterbacks, the fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 21.5): a tough matchup for this bet. How MIN defends quarterbacks
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Every book's price
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Daniel Jones over 21.5 completions3 books
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Completions in each game against over 21.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Completions | Beat 21.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 |  TEN | 22 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 |  PIT | 24 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 |  WSH | 19 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 |  HOU | 24 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 |  KC | 22 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 |  BAL | 19 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 14 |  JAX | 5 | -16.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | HOU | 14 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | KC | 19 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 |  ATL | 19 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | PIT | 31 | +9.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | TEN | 21 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 |  LAC | 23 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 |  ARI | 22 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 |  LV | 20 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 |  LAR | 24 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | TEN | 18 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 |  DEN | 23 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 |  MIA | 22 | +0.5 | Won |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 19.5 completionsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) |  -112at DraftKings | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 53% to break even4 of 9 on the road | -26.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
More on Daniel Jones in this game
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 209.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +156at DraftKings | 10 of 13· last season77%needs 39% to break even6 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | 1.9Slight | |
| Over 199.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) |  +124at Kalshi | 11 of 13· last season85%needs 45% to break even6 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | 1.5Slight | |
| Over 219.5 pass + rush yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +160at DraftKings | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 38% to break even6 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -0.1Not beating its price | |
| Over 196.5 pass + rush yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -114at DraftKings | 12 of 13· last season92%needs 53% to break even7 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -1.0Not beating its price | |
| Over 197.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) |  +108at BetOnline | 11 of 13· last season85%needs 48% to break even6 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -1.2Not beating its price | |
| Over 207.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +132at BetOnline | 10 of 13· last season77%needs 43% to break even6 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -1.3Not beating its price | |
| Over 209.5 pass + rush yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +124at DraftKings | 10 of 13· last season77%needs 45% to break even6 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -2.5Not beating its price | |
| Scores a TDDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) |  +850at BetRivers | 4 of 13· last season31%needs 11% to break even2 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -2.6Not beating its price | |
| Over 199.5 pass + rush yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -105at DraftKings | 11 of 13· last season85%needs 51% to break even6 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -3.7Not beating its price | |
| Over 189.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -107at DraftKings | 11 of 13· last season85%needs 52% to break even6 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -4.1Not beating its price | |
| Over 219.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +203at DraftKings | 8 of 13· last season62%needs 33% to break even5 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -4.2Not beating its price | |
| Over 224.5 pass + rush yardsDaniel Jones · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) |  +174at FanDuel | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 36% to break even5 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -4.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.