This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 43% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 43% to break even | 5%–56% | 23 points shortwon 20%, needs 43% |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 43% to break even | 7%–46% | 23 points shortwon 20%, needs 43% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 43% to break even | 17%–54% | 9 points shortwon 33%, needs 43% |
| This season | 1 of 617%needs 43% to break even | 4%–50% | 26 points shortwon 17%, needs 43% |
| Last season | 7 of 1937%needs 43% to break even | 21%–56% | 6 points shortwon 37%, needs 43% |
| Every game | 8 of 2532%needs 43% to break even | 19%–48% | 11 points shortwon 32%, needs 43% |
Tonight DEN plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against ARI. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Total points in each game against over 46.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Total points | Beat 46.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 15 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 37.5 game total, DEN gamesDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 20.5 team totalDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET |
| 31 |
| -15.5 |
| Lost |
| Oct 11 | 40 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Oct 4 | 38 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Sep 27 | 56 | +9.5 | Won |
| Sep 20 | 33 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Sep 14 | 41 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 25 | 17 | -29.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 17 | 63 | +16.5 | Won |
| Jan 4 | 22 | -24.5 | Lost |
| Dec 25 | 33 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Dec 21 | 54 | +7.5 | Won |
| Dec 14 | 60 | +13.5 | Won |
| Dec 7 | 41 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Nov 30 | 53 | +6.5 | Won |
| Nov 16 | 41 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Nov 6 | 17 | -29.5 | Lost |
| Nov 2 | 33 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Oct 26 | 68 | +21.5 | Won |
| Oct 19 | 65 | +18.5 | Won |
| Oct 12 | 24 | -22.5 | Lost |
| Oct 5 | 38 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Sep 29 | 31 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Sep 21 | 43 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Sep 14 | 57 | +10.5 | Won |
| Sep 7 | 32 | -14.5 | Lost |
| 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 34% to break even |
| -11.5Not beating its price |
| Under 38.5 game total, DEN gamesDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +169at Polymarket | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 37% to break even | -8.0Not beating its price |
| Under 40.5 game total, DEN gamesDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 43% to break even | -6.2Not beating its price |
| Under 41.5 game total, DEN gamesDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 47% to break even | -0.4Not beating its price |
| Under 42.5 game total, DEN gamesDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +105at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 49% to break even | -2.1Not beating its price |
| Under 43.5 game total, DEN gamesDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | NV+104at Novig | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 49% to break even | -1.3Not beating its price |
| Under 44.5 game total, DEN gamesDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 57% to break even | -7.7Not beating its price |
| Under 45.5 game total, DEN gamesDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -148at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 60% to break even | -10.1Not beating its price |
| Under 46.5 game total, DEN gamesDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -158at Polymarket | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 61% to break even | -11.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 38% to break even |
| -3.0Not beating its price |
| Under 23.5 team totalDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -101at Polymarket | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 50% to break even | -3.3Not beating its price |
| Under 11.5 1st half team totalDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 52% to break even | -3.5Not beating its price |
| Under 21.5 team totalDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +152at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 40% to break even | -3.7Not beating its price |
| Under 12.5 1st half team totalDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even | -4.4Not beating its price |
| Under 24.5 team totalDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 55% to break even | -4.9Not beating its price |
| Under 9.5 1st half team totalDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +173at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 37% to break even | -5.5Not beating its price |
| Under 13.5 1st half team totalDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -168at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 63% to break even | -10.5Not beating its price |
| DEN -3.5 4th quarter spreadDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +159at Kalshi | 9 of 19· last season47%needs 39% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.6Not beating its price |
| DEN to win moneylineDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | NV-203at Novig | 15 of 19· last season79%needs 67% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.0Not beating its price |
| DEN -1.5 4th quarter spreadDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +105at Kalshi | 11 of 19· last season58%needs 49% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.2Not beating its price |
| DEN -2.5 4th quarter spreadDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +105at Kalshi | 11 of 19· last season58%needs 49% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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