This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 37% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 37% to break even | 27%–86% | 23 points betterwon 60%, needs 37% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 37% to break even | 35%–81% | 23 points betterwon 60%, needs 37% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 37% to break even | 28%–67% | 10 points betterwon 47%, needs 37% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 37% to break even | 35%–88% | 30 points betterwon 67%, needs 37% |
| Last season | 8 of 1942%needs 37% to break even | 26%–61% | 5 points betterwon 42%, needs 37% |
| Every game | 12 of 2548%needs 37% to break even | 33%–64% | 11 points betterwon 48%, needs 37% |
Tonight DEN plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against ARI. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
DEN 1H points in each game against under 9.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 11.5 1st half team totalDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 41.5 game total, DEN gamesDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET |
| 14 |
| -4.5 |
| Lost |
| Oct 11 | 10 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Oct 4 | 3 | +6.5 | Won |
| Sep 27 | 0 | +9.5 | Won |
| Sep 20 | 3 | +6.5 | Won |
| Sep 14 | 7 | +2.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 25 | 7 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 17 | 20 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Jan 4 | 10 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Dec 25 | 6 | +3.5 | Won |
| Dec 21 | 10 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Dec 14 | 14 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Dec 7 | 14 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Nov 30 | 13 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Nov 16 | 6 | +3.5 | Won |
| Nov 6 | 7 | +2.5 | Won |
| Nov 2 | 7 | +2.5 | Won |
| Oct 26 | 27 | -17.5 | Lost |
| Oct 19 | 0 | +9.5 | Won |
| Oct 12 | 10 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Oct 5 | 3 | +6.5 | Won |
| Sep 29 | 21 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Sep 21 | 7 | +2.5 | Won |
| Sep 14 | 21 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Sep 7 | 10 | -0.5 | Lost |
| 7 of 19· last season37%needs 56% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -36.8Not beating its price |
| Over 12.5 1st half team totalDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 7 of 19· last season37%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -35.1Not beating its price |
| Over 13.5 1st half team totalDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +124at Kalshi | 6 of 19· last season32%needs 45% to break even | Record is last season's | -29.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 47% to break even |
| -0.4Not beating its price |
| Under 43.5 game total, DEN gamesDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | NV+104at Novig | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 49% to break even | -1.3Not beating its price |
| Under 42.5 game total, DEN gamesDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +105at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 49% to break even | -2.1Not beating its price |
| Under 20.5 team totalDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 38% to break even | -3.0Not beating its price |
| Under 23.5 team totalDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -103at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 51% to break even | -3.7Not beating its price |
| Under 21.5 team totalDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +152at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 40% to break even | -3.7Not beating its price |
| Under 24.5 team totalDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 55% to break even | -4.9Not beating its price |
| Under 40.5 game total, DEN gamesDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 43% to break even | -6.2Not beating its price |
| Under 44.5 game total, DEN gamesDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 57% to break even | -7.7Not beating its price |
| Under 38.5 game total, DEN gamesDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +169at Polymarket | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 37% to break even | -8.0Not beating its price |
| Under 45.5 game total, DEN gamesDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -148at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 60% to break even | -10.1Not beating its price |
| DEN -3.5 4th quarter spreadDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +159at Kalshi | 9 of 19· last season47%needs 39% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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