This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 55% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 55% to break even | 44%–95% | 25 points betterwon 80%, needs 55% |
| Last 10 games | 8 of 1080%needs 55% to break even | 54%–93% | 25 points betterwon 80%, needs 55% |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 55% to break even | 52%–87% | 19 points betterwon 73%, needs 55% |
| This season | 5 of 683%needs 55% to break even | 50%–96% | 29 points betterwon 83%, needs 55% |
| Last season | 12 of 1963%needs 55% to break even | 44%–79% | 8 points betterwon 63%, needs 55% |
| Every game | 17 of 2568%needs 55% to break even | 52%–81% | 13 points betterwon 68%, needs 55% |
Tonight DEN plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against ARI. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
DEN points in each game against under 24.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 21.5 team totalDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 41.5 game total, DEN gamesDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET |
| 17 |
| +7.5 |
| Won |
| Oct 11 | 23 | +1.5 | Won |
| Oct 4 | 14 | +10.5 | Won |
| Sep 27 | 30 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Sep 20 | 20 | +4.5 | Won |
| Sep 14 | 10 | +14.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 25 | 7 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Jan 17 | 33 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Jan 4 | 19 | +5.5 | Won |
| Dec 25 | 20 | +4.5 | Won |
| Dec 21 | 20 | +4.5 | Won |
| Dec 14 | 34 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Dec 7 | 24 | +0.5 | Won |
| Nov 30 | 27 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Nov 16 | 22 | +2.5 | Won |
| Nov 6 | 10 | +14.5 | Won |
| Nov 2 | 18 | +6.5 | Won |
| Oct 26 | 44 | -19.5 | Lost |
| Oct 19 | 33 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Oct 12 | 13 | +11.5 | Won |
| Oct 5 | 21 | +3.5 | Won |
| Sep 29 | 28 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Sep 21 | 20 | +4.5 | Won |
| Sep 14 | 28 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Sep 7 | 20 | +4.5 | Won |
| 9 of 19· last season47%needs 66% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -38.0Not beating its price |
| Over 23.5 team totalDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -123at Polymarket | 8 of 19· last season42%needs 55% to break even | Record is last season's | -35.4Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 team totalDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -103at Kalshi | 7 of 19· last season37%needs 51% to break even | Record is last season's | -33.4Not beating its price |
| Over 28.5 team totalDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +189at Kalshi | 4 of 19· last season21%needs 35% to break even | Record is last season's | -23.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 47% to break even |
| -0.4Not beating its price |
| Under 43.5 game total, DEN gamesDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | NV+104at Novig | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 49% to break even | -1.3Not beating its price |
| Under 42.5 game total, DEN gamesDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +105at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 49% to break even | -2.1Not beating its price |
| Under 11.5 1st half team totalDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 52% to break even | -3.5Not beating its price |
| Under 12.5 1st half team totalDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even | -4.4Not beating its price |
| Under 9.5 1st half team totalDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +173at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 37% to break even | -5.5Not beating its price |
| Under 40.5 game total, DEN gamesDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 43% to break even | -6.2Not beating its price |
| Under 44.5 game total, DEN gamesDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 57% to break even | -7.7Not beating its price |
| Under 38.5 game total, DEN gamesDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +169at Polymarket | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 37% to break even | -8.0Not beating its price |
| Under 45.5 game total, DEN gamesDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -148at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 60% to break even | -10.1Not beating its price |
| Under 13.5 1st half team totalDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -168at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 63% to break even | -10.5Not beating its price |
| DEN -3.5 4th quarter spreadDenver Broncos · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +159at Kalshi | 9 of 19· last season47%needs 39% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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