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NFLGame line4th quarter spread
DEN 4Q -2.5 (4th quarter spread)
Won11 of 19last season · 58%
Best price+109Kalshi
Price needs47.8%wins to break even
Every game14 of 25this season and last
Trend score-15.5Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 48% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 48% to break even | 27%–86% | 12 points betterwon 60%, needs 48% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 48% to break even | 27%–73% | 2 points betterwon 50%, needs 48% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 48% to break even | 28%–67% | 1 points shortwon 47%, needs 48% |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 48% to break even | 22%–78% | 2 points betterwon 50%, needs 48% |
| Last season | 11 of 1958%needs 48% to break even | 39%–74% | 10 points betterwon 58%, needs 48% |
| Every game | 14 of 2556%needs 48% to break even | 40%–71% | 8 points betterwon 56%, needs 48% |
Games like tonight
Tonight DEN plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against ARI. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Every book's price
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DEN 4Q -2.5 (4th quarter spread)1 book
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
4Q margin in each game against den 4q -2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 4Q margin | Beat 2.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 15 |  SEA | -11 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Oct 11 |  LAC | 13 | +10.5 | Won |
| Oct 4 |  SF | -3 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Sep 27 |  LAR | 4 | +1.5 | Won |
| Sep 20 |  JAX | 14 | +11.5 | Won |
| Sep 14 |  KC | -7 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 25 |  NE | 0 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Jan 17 |  BUF | -6 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Jan 4 | LAC | 6 | +3.5 | Won |
| Dec 25 | KC | 4 | +1.5 | Won |
| Dec 21 | JAX | 0 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Dec 14 |  GB | 4 | +1.5 | Won |
| Dec 7 |  LV | -7 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Nov 30 |  WSH | -6 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Nov 16 | KC | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Nov 6 | LV | 0 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Nov 2 |  HOU | 11 | +8.5 | Won |
| Oct 26 |  DAL | 7 | +4.5 | Won |
| Oct 19 |  NYG | 20 | +17.5 | Won |
| Oct 12 |  NYJ | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Oct 5 |  PHI | 18 | +15.5 | Won |
| Sep 29 |  CIN | 7 | +4.5 | Won |
| Sep 21 | LAC | -7 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Sep 14 |  IND | -6 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Sep 7 |  TEN | 7 | +4.5 | Won |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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More on Denver Broncos in this game
This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.