This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 50% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 50% to break even | 27%–86% | 10 points betterwon 60%, needs 50% | 19.2rushing yards |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 50% to break even | 35%–81% | 10 points betterwon 60%, needs 50% | 29.3rushing yards |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 50% to break even | 33%–72% | 4 points betterwon 53%, needs 50% | 30.5rushing yards |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 50% to break even | 22%–78% | evenwon 50%, needs 50% | 26.2rushing yards |
| Last season |
Tonight ARI plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against DEN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 7 of 10 at home. Tonight: DEN allows 107.8 rushing yards a game to running backs, the 3rd most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 89.6): a tough matchup for this bet. How DEN defends running backs
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Rushing yards in each game against under 29.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Rushing yards |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 10 of 1759%needs 50% to break even |
| 39%–76% |
| 9 points betterwon 59%, needs 50% |
| 30.2rushing yards |
| Every game | 13 of 2357%needs 50% to break even | 40%–72% | 7 points betterwon 57%, needs 50% | 29.2rushing yards |
| Beat 29.5 by |
|---|
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 38 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 7 | +22.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 42 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | -1 | +30.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 10 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 61 | -31.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 16 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 23 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 79 | -49.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 18 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Wk 14 | 34 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 20 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Wk 12 | 44 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | 10 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Wk 10 | 57 | -27.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 6 | +23.5 | Won | |
| Wk 8 | 4 | +25.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 16 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Wk 6 | 32 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 51 | -21.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 4 | +25.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 76 | -46.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 24 | +5.5 | Won | |
| -108at DraftKings |
| 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 52% to break even3 of 10 at home |
| -24.6Not beating its price |
| Over 30.5 rushing yardsTyler Allgeier · Tomorrow 4:05 PM ETLove out: next up at RB | -114at FanDuel | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 53% to break even3 of 10 at home | -25.7Not beating its price |
| Over 39.5 rushing yardsTyler Allgeier · Tomorrow 4:05 PM ETLove out: next up at RB | +166at Kalshi | 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 38% to break even1 of 10 at home | -20.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -114at FanDuel |
| 10 of 10· last 10 games100%needs 53% to break even9 of 10 at home |
| 13.8Strong |
| Under 11.5 receiving yardsTyler Allgeier · Tomorrow 4:05 PM ETLove out: next up at RB | -116at DraftKings | 10 of 10· last 10 games100%needs 54% to break even9 of 10 at home | 13.4Strong |
| Under 2.5 receptionsTyler Allgeier · Tomorrow 4:05 PM ETLove out: next up at RB | -136at FanDuel | 17 of 17· last season100%needs 58% to break even10 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | 6.9Good |
| Under 10.5 rush attemptsTyler Allgeier · Tomorrow 4:05 PM ETLove out: next up at RB | -168at Kalshi | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 63% to break even8 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -17.5Not beating its price |
| Over 10.5 rush attemptsTyler Allgeier · Tomorrow 4:05 PM ETLove out: next up at RB | +134at Kalshi | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 43% to break even2 of 10 at home | -22.9Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 receptionsTyler Allgeier · Tomorrow 4:05 PM ETLove out: next up at RB | +119at Kalshi | 1 of 5· last 5 games20%needs 46% to break even0 of 10 at home | -35.7Not beating its price |
| Over 11.5 receiving yardsTyler Allgeier · Tomorrow 4:05 PM ETLove out: next up at RB | -108at DraftKings | 2 of 15· last 15 games13%needs 52% to break even1 of 10 at home | -41.1Not beating its price |
| Over 10.5 receiving yardsTyler Allgeier · Tomorrow 4:05 PM ETLove out: next up at RB | -114at FanDuel | 2 of 15· last 15 games13%needs 53% to break even1 of 10 at home | -42.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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