This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 5 of 5100%needs 53% to break even | 65%–100% | 47 points betterwon 100%, needs 53% | 9receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 10 of 10100%needs 53% to break even | 79%–100% | 47 points betterwon 100%, needs 53% | 5.1receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 13 of 1587%needs 53% to break even | 67%–95% | 33 points betterwon 87%, needs 53% | 8.7receiving yards |
| This season | 6 of 6100%needs 53% to break even | 69%–100% | 47 points betterwon 100%, needs 53% | 9receiving yards |
Tonight ARI plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against DEN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 9 of 10 at home. Tonight: DEN allows 33.2 receiving yards a game to running backs, the 16th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 31.3). How DEN defends running backs
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 10.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 10.5 by |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| Last season |
| 15 of 1788%needs 53% to break even |
| 70%–96% |
| 35 points betterwon 88%, needs 53% |
| 5.6receiving yards |
| Every game | 21 of 2391%needs 53% to break even | 77%–97% | 38 points betterwon 91%, needs 53% | 6.5receiving yards |
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 10 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 9 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 7 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 10 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 9 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 9 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 3 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 0 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | -6 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Wk 15 | 0 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Wk 14 | 33 | -22.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 35 | -24.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | 5 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Wk 11 | 6 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Wk 10 | 0 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 0 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Wk 8 | 10 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 0 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Wk 6 | 6 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 0 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 0 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 4 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 0 | +10.5 | Won | |
| -114at FanDuel |
| 2 of 15· last 15 games13%needs 53% to break even1 of 10 at home |
| -42.2Not beating its price |
| Over 11.5 receiving yardsTyler Allgeier · Tomorrow 4:05 PM ETLove out: next up at RB | -108at DraftKings | 2 of 15· last 15 games13%needs 52% to break even1 of 10 at home | -41.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -136at FanDuel |
| 17 of 17· last season100%needs 58% to break even10 of 10 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| 6.9Good |
| Under 29.5 rushing yardsTyler Allgeier · Tomorrow 4:05 PM ETLove out: next up at RB | +102at BetRivers | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 50% to break even7 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -14.3Not beating its price |
| Under 30.5 rushing yardsTyler Allgeier · Tomorrow 4:05 PM ETLove out: next up at RB | -114at FanDuel | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 53% to break even7 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -17.4Not beating its price |
| Under 10.5 rush attemptsTyler Allgeier · Tomorrow 4:05 PM ETLove out: next up at RB | -168at Kalshi | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 63% to break even8 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -17.5Not beating its price |
| Over 39.5 rushing yardsTyler Allgeier · Tomorrow 4:05 PM ETLove out: next up at RB | +166at Kalshi | 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 38% to break even1 of 10 at home | -20.4Not beating its price |
| Over 10.5 rush attemptsTyler Allgeier · Tomorrow 4:05 PM ETLove out: next up at RB | +134at Kalshi | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 43% to break even2 of 10 at home | -22.9Not beating its price |
| Over 29.5 rushing yardsTyler Allgeier · Tomorrow 4:05 PM ETLove out: next up at RB | -108at DraftKings | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 52% to break even3 of 10 at home | -24.6Not beating its price |
| Over 30.5 rushing yardsTyler Allgeier · Tomorrow 4:05 PM ETLove out: next up at RB | -114at FanDuel | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 53% to break even3 of 10 at home | -25.7Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 receptionsTyler Allgeier · Tomorrow 4:05 PM ETLove out: next up at RB | +119at Kalshi | 1 of 5· last 5 games20%needs 46% to break even0 of 10 at home | -35.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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