This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 58% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 58% to break even | 44%–95% | 22 points betterwon 80%, needs 58% | 2.2receptions |
| Last 10 games | 9 of 1090%needs 58% to break even | 65%–98% | 32 points betterwon 90%, needs 58% | 1.5receptions |
| Last 15 games | 14 of 1593%needs 58% to break even | 75%–98% | 36 points betterwon 93%, needs 58% | 1.5receptions |
| This season | 5 of 683%needs 58% to break even | 50%–96% | 26 points betterwon 83%, needs 58% | 2.2receptions |
| Last season |
Tonight ARI plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against DEN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 10 of 10 at home. Tonight: DEN allows 4.5 receptions a game to running backs, the 14th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 4.4). How DEN defends running backs
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against under 2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receptions | Beat 2.5 by |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 17 of 17100%needs 58% to break even |
| 86%–100% |
| 42 points betterwon 100%, needs 58% |
| 0.8receptions |
| Every game | 22 of 2396%needs 58% to break even | 83%–99% | 38 points betterwon 96%, needs 58% | 1.2receptions |
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 0 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 15 | 0 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 14 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 12 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 11 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 10 | 0 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 0 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 8 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 0 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 6 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 0 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 0 | +2.5 | Won | |
| +119at Kalshi |
| 1 of 5· last 5 games20%needs 46% to break even0 of 10 at home |
| -35.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -114at FanDuel |
| 10 of 10· last 10 games100%needs 53% to break even9 of 10 at home |
| 13.8Strong |
| Under 11.5 receiving yardsTyler Allgeier · Tomorrow 4:05 PM ETLove out: next up at RB | -116at DraftKings | 10 of 10· last 10 games100%needs 54% to break even9 of 10 at home | 13.4Strong |
| Under 29.5 rushing yardsTyler Allgeier · Tomorrow 4:05 PM ETLove out: next up at RB | +102at BetRivers | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 50% to break even7 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -14.3Not beating its price |
| Under 30.5 rushing yardsTyler Allgeier · Tomorrow 4:05 PM ETLove out: next up at RB | -114at FanDuel | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 53% to break even7 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -17.4Not beating its price |
| Under 10.5 rush attemptsTyler Allgeier · Tomorrow 4:05 PM ETLove out: next up at RB | -168at Kalshi | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 63% to break even8 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -17.5Not beating its price |
| Over 39.5 rushing yardsTyler Allgeier · Tomorrow 4:05 PM ETLove out: next up at RB | +166at Kalshi | 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 38% to break even1 of 10 at home | -20.4Not beating its price |
| Over 10.5 rush attemptsTyler Allgeier · Tomorrow 4:05 PM ETLove out: next up at RB | +134at Kalshi | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 43% to break even2 of 10 at home | -22.9Not beating its price |
| Over 29.5 rushing yardsTyler Allgeier · Tomorrow 4:05 PM ETLove out: next up at RB | -108at DraftKings | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 52% to break even3 of 10 at home | -24.6Not beating its price |
| Over 30.5 rushing yardsTyler Allgeier · Tomorrow 4:05 PM ETLove out: next up at RB | -114at FanDuel | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 53% to break even3 of 10 at home | -25.7Not beating its price |
| Over 11.5 receiving yardsTyler Allgeier · Tomorrow 4:05 PM ETLove out: next up at RB | -108at DraftKings | 2 of 15· last 15 games13%needs 52% to break even1 of 10 at home | -41.1Not beating its price |
| Over 10.5 receiving yardsTyler Allgeier · Tomorrow 4:05 PM ETLove out: next up at RB | -114at FanDuel | 2 of 15· last 15 games13%needs 53% to break even1 of 10 at home | -42.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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