This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 54% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 54% to break even | 44%–95% | 26 points betterwon 80%, needs 54% | 32.6rushing yards |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 54% to break even | 44%–87% | 16 points betterwon 70%, needs 54% | 45.3rushing yards |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 54% to break even | 39%–78% | 6 points betterwon 60%, needs 54% | 48.9rushing yards |
| This season | 5 of 683%needs 54% to break even | 50%–96% | 29 points betterwon 83%, needs 54% | 34.2rushing yards |
| Last season |
Tonight HOU plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against NYG. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 7 of 11 at home. Tonight: NYG allows 107.5 rushing yards a game to running backs, the 4th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 89.6): a tough matchup for this bet. How NYG defends running backs
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Rushing yards in each game against under 60.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 10 of 1856%needs 54% to break even |
| 37%–73% |
| 1 points betterwon 56%, needs 54% |
| 46.2rushing yards |
| Every game | 15 of 2463%needs 54% to break even | 46%–77% | 8 points betterwon 63%, needs 54% | 43.2rushing yards |
| Date |
|---|
| Opponent |
|---|
| Rushing yards |
|---|
| Beat 60.5 by |
|---|
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 56 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 62 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 22 | +38.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 15 | +45.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 8 | +52.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 42 | +18.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 20 | 17 | +43.5 | Won | |
| Wk 19 | 112 | -51.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 18 | 48 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 71 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 30 | +30.5 | Won | |
| Wk 14 | 68 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 64 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | 74 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | 44 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Wk 10 | 63 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 27 | +33.5 | Won | |
| Wk 8 | 62 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 15 | +45.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 24 | +36.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 69 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 27 | +33.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 14 | +46.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 3 | +57.5 | Won | |
| -131at Kalshi |
| 8 of 18· last season44%needs 57% to break even4 of 11 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -34.3Not beating its price |
| Over 60.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | -113at BetRivers | 8 of 18· last season44%needs 53% to break even4 of 11 at home | Record is last season's | -31.3Not beating its price |
| Over 61.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | -112at DraftKings | 8 of 18· last season44%needs 53% to break even4 of 11 at home | Record is last season's | -31.1Not beating its price |
| Over 62.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | -114at BetOnline | 7 of 18· last season39%needs 53% to break even3 of 11 at home | Record is last season's | -35.4Not beating its price |
| Over 69.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | +114at Kalshi | 3 of 15· last 15 games20%needs 47% to break even1 of 11 at home | -34.7Not beating its price |
| Over 79.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | +181at Kalshi | 1 of 10· last 10 games10%needs 36% to break even0 of 11 at home | -28.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +146at Kalshi |
| 11 of 18· last season61%needs 41% to break even9 of 11 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -5.4Not beating its price |
| Under 79.5 rush + rec yardsWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | -116at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 54% to break even8 of 11 at home | -6.1Not beating its price |
| Doesn't score a TDWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | -107at Kalshi | 13 of 18· last season72%needs 52% to break even8 of 11 at home | Record is last season's | -6.8Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 receptionsWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | +159at Kalshi | 11 of 18· last season61%needs 39% to break even6 of 11 at home | Record is last season's | -6.9Not beating its price |
| Under 17.5 rush attemptsWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | -191at Kalshi | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 66% to break even11 of 11 at home | Record is this season's | -7.4Not beating its price |
| Under 2.5 receptionsWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | -191at Kalshi | 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 66% to break even8 of 11 at home | -11.8Not beating its price |
| Under 14.5 receiving yardsWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | -161at Kalshi | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 62% to break even6 of 11 at home | -21.4Not beating its price |
| Over 14.5 receiving yardsWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | +114at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 47% to break even5 of 11 at home | -22.5Not beating its price |
| Over 17.5 rush attemptsWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | +146at Kalshi | 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 41% to break even0 of 11 at home | -26.7Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 receptionsWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | +134at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 43% to break even3 of 11 at home | -28.4Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | -112at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 53% to break even3 of 11 at home | -32.9Not beating its price |
| Over 14.5 rush attemptsWoody Marks · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETMontgomery out: next up at RB | -175at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 64% to break even2 of 11 at home | -35.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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