This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 54% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 54% to break even | 14%–73% | 14 points shortwon 40%, needs 54% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 54% to break even | 13%–56% | 24 points shortwon 30%, needs 54% |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 1527%needs 54% to break even | 13%–48% | 27 points shortwon 27%, needs 54% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 54% to break even | 12%–65% | 20 points shortwon 33%, needs 54% |
| Last season | 5 of 1828%needs 54% to break even | 14%–47% | 26 points shortwon 28%, needs 54% |
| Every game | 7 of 2429%needs 54% to break even | 17%–46% | 25 points shortwon 29%, needs 54% |
Tonight HOU plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against NYG. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Anytime TD in each game against yes, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Anytime TD | Beat 0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 20 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 19 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 18 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doesn't score a TDWoody Marks · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful: next up at RB | -103at Kalshi | 13 of 18· last season72%needs 51% to break even | Record is last season's | -6.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 69.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful: next up at RB | -175at Kalshi | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 64% to break even | Record is this season's | -1.1Not beating its price | |
| Under 49.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful: next up at RB | +159at Kalshi | 10 of 18· last season56%needs 39% to break even | Record is last season's | -3.9Not beating its price | |
| Under 14.5 rush attemptsWoody Marks · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful: next up at RB | +152at Kalshi | 11 of 18· last season61%needs 40% to break even | Record is last season's | -4.6Not beating its price | |
| Under 59.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful: next up at RB | +105at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 49% to break even | Record is this season's | -5.3Not beating its price | |
| Under 17.5 rush attemptsWoody Marks · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful: next up at RB | -199at Kalshi | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 67% to break even | Record is this season's | -8.2Not beating its price | |
| Under 56.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful: next up at RB | -112at DraftKings | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 53% to break even | Record is this season's | -8.6Not beating its price | |
| Under 52.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful: next up at RB | -114at FanDuel | 10 of 18· last season56%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.0Not beating its price | |
| Over 79.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful: next up at RB | +198at Kalshi | 1 of 10· last 10 games10%needs 34% to break even | -26.9Not beating its price | ||
| Over 52.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful: next up at RB | -114at FanDuel | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 53% to break even | -27.0Not beating its price | ||
| Over 17.5 rush attemptsWoody Marks · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful: next up at RB | +140at Kalshi | 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 42% to break even | -27.5Not beating its price | ||
| Over 56.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful: next up at RB | -112at DraftKings | 8 of 18· last season44%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -31.1Not beating its price | |
| Over 69.5 rushing yardsWoody Marks · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful: next up at RB | +129at Kalshi | 3 of 15· last 15 games20%needs 44% to break even | -32.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.