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NFLPlayer propPassing yards
Baker Mayfield over 256.5 passing yards
Won5 of 17last season · 29%
Best price+189BetOnline
Price needs34.6%wins to break even
Every game5 of 20this season and last
Trend score-21.7Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 35% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 35% to break even | 5%–56% | 15 points shortwon 20%, needs 35% | 232.8passing yards |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 35% to break even | 7%–46% | 15 points shortwon 20%, needs 35% | 194.3passing yards |
| Last 15 games | 3 of 1520%needs 35% to break even | 8%–41% | 15 points shortwon 20%, needs 35% | 201.7passing yards |
| This season | 0 of 30%needs 35% to break even | 0%–47% | 35 points shortwon 0%, needs 35% | 205passing yards |
| Last season | 5 of 1729%needs 35% to break even | 15%–49% | 5 points shortwon 29%, needs 35% | 217.2passing yards |
| Every game | 5 of 2025%needs 35% to break even | 13%–43% | 10 points shortwon 25%, needs 35% | 215.4passing yards |
Games like tonight
Tonight TB plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against CAR. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 2 of 10 on the road. Tonight: CAR allows 237 passing yards a game to quarterbacks, the 16th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 236.1). How CAR defends quarterbacks
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Every book's price
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Baker Mayfield over 256.5 passing yards1 book
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Passing yards in each game against over 256.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Passing yards | Beat 256.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 3 |  MIN | 217 | -39.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 |  CLE | 182 | -74.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 |  CIN | 216 | -40.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 |  CAR | 203 | -53.5 | Lost |
| Wk 17 |  MIA | 346 | +89.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | CAR | 145 | -111.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 |  ATL | 277 | +20.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 |  NO | 122 | -134.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 |  ARI | 194 | -62.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 |  LAR | 41 | -215.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 |  BUF | 173 | -83.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 |  NE | 273 | +16.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | NO | 152 | -104.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 |  DET | 228 | -28.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 |  SF | 256 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 |  SEA | 379 | +122.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 |  PHI | 289 | +32.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 |  NYJ | 233 | -23.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 |  HOU | 215 | -41.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | ATL | 167 | -89.5 | Lost |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 215.5 passing yardsBaker Mayfield · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable |  -114at FanDuel | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 53% to break even6 of 10 on the road | -21.9Not beating its price | ||
| Under 216.5 passing yardsBaker Mayfield · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable |  -111at DraftKings | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even7 of 10 on the road | -14.6Not beating its price | ||
| Under 217.5 passing yardsBaker Mayfield · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable |  -115at BetMGM | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even7 of 10 on the road | -6.4Not beating its price | ||
| Under 219.5 passing yardsBaker Mayfield · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable |  -114at BetRivers | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even7 of 10 on the road | -6.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
More on Baker Mayfield in this game
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.