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NFLPlayer propPassing yards
Baker Mayfield under 217.5 passing yards
Won8 of 10last 10 games · 80%
Best price-115BetMGM
Price needs53.5%wins to break even
Every game12 of 20this season and last
Trend score-6.4Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 53% to break even | 44%–95% | 27 points betterwon 80%, needs 53% | 232.8passing yards |
| Last 10 games | 8 of 1080%needs 53% to break even | 54%–93% | 27 points betterwon 80%, needs 53% | 194.3passing yards |
| Last 15 games | 10 of 1567%needs 53% to break even | 46%–83% | 13 points betterwon 67%, needs 53% | 201.7passing yards |
| This season | 3 of 3100%needs 53% to break even | 53%–100% | 47 points betterwon 100%, needs 53% | 205passing yards |
| Last season | 9 of 1753%needs 53% to break even | 34%–71% | 1 points shortwon 53%, needs 53% | 217.2passing yards |
| Every game | 12 of 2060%needs 53% to break even | 42%–76% | 7 points betterwon 60%, needs 53% | 215.4passing yards |
Games like tonight
Tonight TB plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against CAR. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 7 of 10 on the road. Tonight: CAR allows 237 passing yards a game to quarterbacks, the 16th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 236.1). How CAR defends quarterbacks
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Every book's price
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Baker Mayfield under 217.5 passing yards1 book
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Passing yards in each game against under 217.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Passing yards | Beat 217.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 3 |  MIN | 217 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 |  CLE | 182 | +35.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 |  CIN | 216 | +1.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 |  CAR | 203 | +14.5 | Won |
| Wk 17 |  MIA | 346 | -128.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | CAR | 145 | +72.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 |  ATL | 277 | -59.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 |  NO | 122 | +95.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 |  ARI | 194 | +23.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 |  LAR | 41 | +176.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 |  BUF | 173 | +44.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 |  NE | 273 | -55.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | NO | 152 | +65.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 |  DET | 228 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 |  SF | 256 | -38.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 |  SEA | 379 | -161.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 |  PHI | 289 | -71.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 |  NYJ | 233 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 |  HOU | 215 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | ATL | 167 | +50.5 | Won |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 196.5 passing yardsBaker Mayfield · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable |  -192at BetOnline | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 66% to break even5 of 10 on the road | -25.8Not beating its price | ||
| Over 199.5 passing yardsBaker Mayfield · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable |  -160at Fanatics | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 62% to break even5 of 10 on the road | -22.4Not beating its price | ||
| Over 206.5 passing yardsBaker Mayfield · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -147at BetOnline | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 60% to break even5 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -25.9Not beating its price | |
| Over 209.5 passing yardsBaker Mayfield · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable |  -136at DraftKings | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 58% to break even5 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -24.4Not beating its price | |
| Over 215.5 passing yardsBaker Mayfield · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -110at Fanatics | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 52% to break even4 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -21.3Not beating its price | |
| Over 216.5 passing yardsBaker Mayfield · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -113at DraftKings | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 53% to break even3 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -28.1Not beating its price | |
| Over 217.5 passing yardsBaker Mayfield · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable |  -115at BetMGM | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 53% to break even3 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -32.6Not beating its price | |
| Over 219.5 passing yardsBaker Mayfield · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -104at DraftKings | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 51% to break even3 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -30.6Not beating its price | |
| Over 224.5 passing yardsBaker Mayfield · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +115at Fanatics | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 47% to break even3 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -27.0Not beating its price | |
| Over 226.5 passing yardsBaker Mayfield · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +106at BetOnline | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 49% to break even3 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -28.6Not beating its price | |
| Over 229.5 passing yardsBaker Mayfield · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +123at DraftKings | 7 of 17· last season41%needs 45% to break even2 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -27.4Not beating its price | |
| Over 236.5 passing yardsBaker Mayfield · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +129at BetOnline | 6 of 17· last season35%needs 44% to break even2 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -27.4Not beating its price | |
| Over 239.5 passing yardsBaker Mayfield · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +158at DraftKings | 6 of 17· last season35%needs 39% to break even2 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -23.4Not beating its price | |
| Over 246.5 passing yardsBaker Mayfield · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +156at BetOnline | 6 of 17· last season35%needs 39% to break even2 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -23.7Not beating its price | |
| Over 249.5 passing yardsBaker Mayfield · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +203at DraftKings | 6 of 17· last season35%needs 33% to break even2 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -18.8Not beating its price | |
| Over 256.5 passing yardsBaker Mayfield · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +189at BetOnline | 5 of 17· last season29%needs 35% to break even2 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -21.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
More on Baker Mayfield in this game
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.