This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 53% to break even | 27%–86% | 7 points betterwon 60%, needs 53% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 53% to break even | 44%–87% | 17 points betterwon 70%, needs 53% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 53% to break even | 39%–78% | 7 points betterwon 60%, needs 53% |
| This season | 2 of 367%needs 53% to break even | 25%–92% | 13 points betterwon 67%, needs 53% |
| Last season | 9 of 1753%needs 53% to break even | 34%–71% | 1 points shortwon 53%, needs 53% |
Tonight TB plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against CAR. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Passing yards in each game against under 216.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Passing yards | Beat 216.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 3 | 217 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 214.5 passing yardsBaker Mayfield |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 16.5 rushing yardsBaker Mayfield |
| Every game | 11 of 2055%needs 53% to break even | 37%–72% | 2 points betterwon 55%, needs 53% |
| 182 |
| +34.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 1 | 216 | +0.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 203 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 346 | -129.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 145 | +71.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 277 | -60.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 122 | +94.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 194 | +22.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 41 | +175.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 173 | +43.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | 273 | -56.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | 152 | +64.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 228 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | 256 | -39.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 | 379 | -162.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 289 | -72.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 233 | -16.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 215 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 167 | +49.5 | Won |
| -112at DraftKings |
| 9 of 17· last season53%needs 53% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -20.6Not beating its price |
| Over 215.5 passing yardsBaker Mayfield · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -114at FanDuel | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -22.0Not beating its price |
| Over 216.5 passing yardsBaker Mayfield · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -115at BetMGM | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -28.4Not beating its price |
| Over 219.5 passing yardsBaker Mayfield · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -117at BetRivers | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -32.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -112at DraftKings |
| 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even |
| -15.7Not beating its price |
| Under 16.5 rushing yardsBaker Mayfield · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -112at DraftKings | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -27.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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