This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 64% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 64% to break even | 44%–95% | 16 points betterwon 80%, needs 64% | 1passing touchdowns |
| Last 10 games | 8 of 1080%needs 64% to break even | 54%–93% | 16 points betterwon 80%, needs 64% | 1.1passing touchdowns |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 64% to break even | 52%–87% | 9 points betterwon 73%, needs 64% | 1.2passing touchdowns |
| This season | 3 of 3100%needs 64% to break even | 53%–100% | 36 points betterwon 100%, needs 64% | 0.7passing touchdowns |
| Last season |
Tonight TB plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against CAR. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 6 of 10 on the road. Tonight: CAR allows 1.2 passing touchdowns a game to quarterbacks, the 12th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 1.5). How CAR defends quarterbacks
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Passing TDs in each game against under 1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Passing TDs | Beat 1.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 9 of 1753%needs 64% to break even |
| 34%–71% |
| 11 points shortwon 53%, needs 64% |
| 1.5passing touchdowns |
| Every game | 12 of 2060%needs 64% to break even | 42%–76% | 4 points shortwon 60%, needs 64% | 1.4passing touchdowns |
| Wk 3 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| +155at BetMGM |
| 8 of 17· last season47%needs 39% to break even4 of 10 on the road |
| Record is last season's |
| -21.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +200at FanDuel |
| 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 33% to break even5 of 10 on the road |
| -3.5Not beating its price |
| Under 219.5 passing yardsBaker Mayfield · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -114at BetRivers | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even7 of 10 on the road | -6.2Not beating its price |
| Under 217.5 passing yardsBaker Mayfield · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -115at BetMGM | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even7 of 10 on the road | -6.4Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDBaker Mayfield · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +525at BetMGM | 1 of 3· this season33%needs 16% to break even2 of 10 on the road | Record is this season's | -9.6Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 interceptions thrownBaker Mayfield · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -110at BetMGM | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 52% to break even5 of 10 on the road | -9.9Not beating its price |
| Over 26.5 rushing yardsBaker Mayfield · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +139at BetOnline | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 42% to break even5 of 10 on the road | -10.3Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 rushing yardsBaker Mayfield · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +124at FanDuel | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 45% to break even5 of 10 on the road | -12.5Not beating its price |
| Over 14.5 rushing yardsBaker Mayfield · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -143at DraftKings | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 59% to break even8 of 10 on the road | -13.9Not beating its price |
| Under 237.5 pass + rush yardsBaker Mayfield · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -113at DraftKings | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 53% to break even6 of 10 on the road | -14.0Not beating its price |
| Under 235.5 pass + rush yardsBaker Mayfield · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -114at FanDuel | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 53% to break even6 of 10 on the road | -14.1Not beating its price |
| Under 242.5 pass + rush yardsBaker Mayfield · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -115at BetRivers | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 53% to break even6 of 10 on the road | -14.3Not beating its price |
| Under 216.5 passing yardsBaker Mayfield · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -111at DraftKings | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even7 of 10 on the road | -14.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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