This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 48% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 48% to break even | 44%–95% | 32 points betterwon 80%, needs 48% | 208.2total points |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 48% to break even | 44%–87% | 22 points betterwon 70%, needs 48% | 216.2total points |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 48% to break even | 39%–78% | 12 points betterwon 60%, needs 48% | 220.8total points |
| This season | 1 of 250%needs 48% to break even | 12%–88% | 2 points betterwon 50%, needs 48% | 231total points |
| Last season | 51 of 8858%needs 48% to break even | 49%–66% | 10 points betterwon 58%, needs 48% | 223.5total points |
| Every game | 52 of 9058%needs 48% to break even | 49%–66% | 9 points betterwon 58%, needs 48% | 223.7total points |
Tonight HOU plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, on a back-to-back, against ATL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 24 of 45 on the road.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Total points in each game against under 227.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Total points | Beat 227.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 23 | 224 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Oct 21 | 238 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 1 | 176 | +51.5 | Won | |
| Apr 29 | 192 | +35.5 | Won | |
| Apr 26 | 211 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Apr 24 | 220 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Apr 21 | 195 | +32.5 | Won | |
| Apr 18 | 205 | +22.5 | Won | |
| Apr 12 | 233 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 10 | 268 | -40.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 9 | 215 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Apr 7 | 224 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Apr 5 | 233 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 3 | 246 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 1 | 232 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 31 | 205 | +22.5 | Won | |
| Mar 29 | 236 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 27 | 228 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 25 | 218 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Mar 23 | 256 | -28.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 21 | 245 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 20 | 212 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Mar 18 | 240 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 16 | 192 | +35.5 | Won | |
| Mar 13 | 212 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Mar 11 | 222 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Mar 10 | 212 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Mar 8 | 265 | -37.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 6 | 205 | +22.5 | Won | |
| Mar 5 | 228 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 2 | 241 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 28 | 220 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Feb 26 | 221 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Feb 25 | 225 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Feb 23 | 230 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 21 | 214 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Feb 19 | 206 | +21.5 | Won | |
| Feb 11 | 207 | +20.5 | Won | |
| Feb 10 | 197 | +30.5 | Won | |
| Feb 7 | 218 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Feb 5 | 208 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Feb 4 | 207 | +20.5 | Won | |
| Feb 2 | 232 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 31 | 218 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Jan 29 | 190 | +37.5 | Won | |
| Jan 28 | 210 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Jan 26 | 207 | +20.5 | Won | |
| Jan 23 | 215 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Jan 22 | 250 | -22.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 20 | 217 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Jan 18 | 229 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 16 | 215 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Jan 15 | 202 | +25.5 | Won | |
| Jan 13 | 232 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 11 | 209 | +18.5 | Won | |
| Jan 9 | 216 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Jan 7 | 205 | +22.5 | Won | |
| Jan 5 | 197 | +30.5 | Won | |
| Jan 3 | 214 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Jan 1 | 216 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Dec 29 | 245 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 27 | 217 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Dec 25 | 215 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Dec 23 | 236 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 21 | 249 | -21.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 20 | 216 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Dec 18 | 261 | -33.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 15 | 253 | -25.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 11 | 228 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 6 | 231 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 5 | 215 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Dec 3 | 216 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Dec 1 | 258 | -30.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 30 | 230 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 26 | 204 | +23.5 | Won | |
| Nov 24 | 206 | +21.5 | Won | |
| Nov 21 | 221 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Nov 19 | 218 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Nov 16 | 230 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 14 | 256 | -28.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 12 | 247 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 9 | 237 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 7 | 231 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 5 | 233 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 3 | 212 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Nov 1 | 229 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 29 | 260 | -32.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 27 | 246 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 24 | 226 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 21 | 249 | -21.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU -3.5 spreadHouston Rockets · Today 8:30 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 49 of 88· last season56%needs 42% to break even23 of 45 on the road | Record is last season's | -3.3Not beating its price | |
| HOU -2.5 spreadHouston Rockets · Today 8:30 PM ET | +131at Polymarket | 50 of 88· last season57%needs 43% to break even23 of 45 on the road | Record is last season's | -4.6Not beating its price | |
| HOU -5.5 spreadHouston Rockets · Today 8:30 PM ET | +189at Kalshi | 40 of 88· last season45%needs 35% to break even17 of 45 on the road | Record is last season's | -5.3Not beating its price | |
| HOU -1.5 spreadHouston Rockets · Today 8:30 PM ET | +116at Polymarket | 52 of 88· last season59%needs 46% to break even23 of 45 on the road | Record is last season's | -6.9Not beating its price | |
| HOU to win moneylineHouston Rockets · Today 8:30 PM ET | +103at Polymarket | 54 of 88· last season61%needs 49% to break even24 of 45 on the road | Record is last season's | -7.5Not beating its price | |
| HOU -4.5 spreadHouston Rockets · Today 8:30 PM ET | +155at Polymarket | 44 of 88· last season50%needs 39% to break even19 of 45 on the road | Record is last season's | -8.7Not beating its price | |
| HOU +4.5 spreadHouston Rockets · Today 8:30 PM ET | -172at Polymarket | 66 of 88· last season75%needs 63% to break even30 of 45 on the road | Record is last season's | -9.0Not beating its price | |
| HOU +1.5 spreadHouston Rockets · Today 8:30 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 57 of 88· last season65%needs 52% to break even27 of 45 on the road | Record is last season's | -9.0Not beating its price | |
| HOU +5.5 spreadHouston Rockets · Today 8:30 PM ET | -187at Polymarket | 67 of 88· last season76%needs 65% to break even31 of 45 on the road | Record is last season's | -10.5Not beating its price | |
| HOU +2.5 spreadHouston Rockets · Today 8:30 PM ET | -129at Polymarket | 60 of 88· last season68%needs 56% to break even29 of 45 on the road | Record is last season's | -12.6Not beating its price | |
| HOU +1.5 1st half spreadHouston Rockets · Today 8:30 PM ET | -137at Kalshi | 56 of 88· last season64%needs 58% to break even28 of 45 on the road | Record is last season's | -12.8Not beating its price | |
| Under 109.5 team totalHouston Rockets · Today 8:30 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 36% to break even16 of 45 on the road | -13.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.