+8.5 spread: that team can lose by up to 8 and the bet still winsO 47.5 total: wins if the two teams score 48 or more combined−110 bet $110 to win $100+150 bet $100 to win $150The badge is the book with that price (tap a price to see every book's); green pays more than the bet's chances call forBet types explained →
Outlined is the best price on each side; green pays more than the chances call for, and a small negative edge is normal. Tap a price to bet it. What the numbers mean
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On Polymarket and Kalshi a contract pays $1 if it comes true, so its price is the crowd's chance. Charts follow the home team.
Big single bets on Polymarket and Kalshi, and how much money is on this game. What bettors did, not a reason to follow them.
"To win" chances average the sportsbooks (with their cut taken out), Polymarket and Kalshi. How it works
| -103 |
| -116 |
| -116 |
| -112 |
| -107 |
| -116 |
| Polymarket | +103 | -119 | -109 | -105 | -105 | -109 |
Vig at the best pricesspread 3.3% · total 3.3% · to win 2.9%Cheapest books →
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Bets in this game that have kept winning, more often than their price needs. A trend counts every recent game, whoever the opponent, and some are luck.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 224.5 game total, HOU gamesHouston Rockets | +155at Polymarket | 49 of 88· last season56%needs 39% to break even24 of 45 on the road | Record is last season's | 3.8Good |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 5.5 rebounds |
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU -3.5 spread |
| +134at Kalshi |
| 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 43% to break even18 of 40 on the road |
| 1.5Slight |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +143at Polymarket |
| 49 of 88· last season56%needs 41% to break even23 of 45 on the road |
| Record is last season's |
| -2.8Not beating its price |
| Under 230.5 game total, ATL gamesAtlanta Hawks | -109at Polymarket | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 52% to break even23 of 44 at home | -5.9Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 threesKevin Durant · HOU | -175at Kalshi | 58 of 82· last season71%needs 64% to break even30 of 40 on the road | Record is last season's | -10.4Not beating its price |
| Under 112.5 team totalAtlanta Hawks | +134at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 43% to break even17 of 44 at home | -10.7Not beating its price |
| HOU +1.5 1st half spreadHouston Rockets | -137at Kalshi | 56 of 88· last season64%needs 58% to break even28 of 45 on the road | Record is last season's | -12.8Not beating its price |
| Under 115.5 team totalHouston Rockets | -121at Kalshi | 48 of 88· last season55%needs 55% to break even24 of 45 on the road | Record is last season's | -12.8Not beating its price |
| Over 3.5 reboundsNickeil Alexander-Walker · ATL | +146at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 41% to break even13 of 42 at home | -14.0Not beating its price |
| ATL -6.5 spreadAtlanta Hawks | +177at Polymarket | 37 of 88· last season42%needs 36% to break even21 of 44 at home | Record is last season's | -14.5Not beating its price |
| Over 120.5 team totalAtlanta Hawks | +173at Kalshi | 39 of 88· last season44%needs 37% to break even20 of 44 at home | Record is last season's | -16.0Not beating its price |
| Under 5.5 assistsAmen Thompson · HOU | -116at Kalshi | 45 of 85· last season53%needs 54% to break even22 of 44 on the road | Record is last season's | -16.2Not beating its price |
| Under 19.5 pointsJalen Johnson · ATL | -107at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 52% to break even12 of 38 at home | -18.3Not beating its price |
| Under 56.5 1st quarter totalAtlanta Hawks | -121at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 55% to break even18 of 44 at home | -19.1Not beating its price |
| HOU -0.5 1st quarter spreadHouston Rockets | +101at Kalshi | 46 of 88· last season52%needs 50% to break even23 of 45 on the road | Record is last season's | -19.7Not beating its price |
| ATL -1.5 1st half spreadAtlanta Hawks | -103at Kalshi | 45 of 88· last season51%needs 51% to break even23 of 44 at home | Record is last season's | -21.5Not beating its price |
| Over 238.5 game total, ATL gamesAtlanta Hawks | +181at Kalshi | 33 of 88· last season38%needs 36% to break even12 of 44 at home | Record is last season's | -22.1Not beating its price |
| Over 113.5 team totalHouston Rockets | -137at Kalshi | 45 of 88· last season51%needs 58% to break even25 of 45 on the road | Record is last season's | -22.3Not beating its price |
| Over 9.5 reboundsJalen Johnson · ATL | -112at Kalshi | 45 of 81· last season56%needs 53% to break even17 of 38 at home | Record is last season's | -22.5Not beating its price |
| Under 9.5 reboundsJalen Johnson · ATL | -126at Kalshi | 36 of 81· last season44%needs 56% to break even21 of 38 at home | Record is last season's | -22.7Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 pointsJalen Johnson · ATL | -116at Kalshi | 49 of 81· last season60%needs 54% to break even26 of 38 at home | Record is last season's | -23.8Not beating its price |
| Over 56.5 1st quarter totalAtlanta Hawks | -116at Kalshi | 55 of 88· last season63%needs 54% to break even26 of 44 at home | Record is last season's | -25.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| $26,525 | at 51¢ (-104) | Kalshi | Not shown | ||
| $11,585 | at 49¢ (+105) | Kalshi | Not shown |
Who's hurt, rest, the weather, form and how the two teams match up. Injuries can change up to game time.
| Reed Sheppard | G | Out | Left Knee · back ~Oct 24 |
| Mouhamed Gueye | F | Out | Left Foot · back ~Nov 20 |
| Henri Veesaar | C | Out | Right Knee · back ~Jul 1 |
| This season | HOU | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Streak | Won last game | Won last 2 |
| Points against | 110.0 | 103.0 |
| Last ten games | 1-0 | 2-0 |
| Points per game | 128.0 | 132.0 |
| Field goal % | 53% | 49% |
| Three point % | 44% | 39% |
| Rebounds per game | 42.0 | 42.0 |
| Assists per game | 32.0 | 28.0 |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 27 | 27 | 22 | 19 | 95 |
| HOU | 35 | 27 | 39 | 16 | 117 |
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Polymarket and Kalshi sell the spread and total at every number, not just the one most books use. Each row shows the chance that bet wins, from their prices, and the best price on each side at any book, sportsbooks' alternate lines and fees included.
| Bet | Chance | Best price | Other side, best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL +4.5 | 64% chance | -195 | HOU -4.5+162 |
| ATL +3.5 | 61% chance | -172 | HOU -3.5+143 |
| ATL +2.5 | 58% chance | -145 | HOU -2.5+126 |
| ATL +1.5 | 55% chance | -129 | HOU -1.5+112 |
| ATL -1.5Most books' number | 50% chance | -105$190 available at this price | HOU +1.5-109$140 available at this price |
| ATL -2.5 | 45% chance | +112 | HOU +2.5-129 |
| ATL -3.5 | 42% chance | +131 | HOU +3.5-151 |
| ATL -4.5 | 39% chance | +143 | HOU +4.5-172 |
| ATL -5.5 | 37% chance | +152 | HOU +5.5-187 |
| 56% chance |
| -139 |
| Under 227.5+121 |
| Over 228.5 | 54% chance | -129 | Under 228.5+112 |
| Over 230.5Most books' number | 49% chance | -105$1,400 available at this price | Under 230.5-109$53 available at this price |
| Over 232.5 | 45% chance | +112 | Under 232.5-129 |
| Over 233.5 | 42% chance | +121 | Under 233.5-158 |
| Over 234.5 | 41% chance | +131 | Under 234.5-164 |
| Over 235.5 | 38% chance | +143 | Under 235.5-187 |