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NBAPlayer propThrees
Aaron Nesmith under 1.5 threes
Won9 of 15last 15 games · 60%
Best price+125BetOnline
Price needs44.4%wins to break even
Every game17 of 45this season and last
Trend score-16.5Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 44% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 44% to break even | 14%–73% | 4 points shortwon 40%, needs 44% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 44% to break even | 19%–65% | 4 points shortwon 40%, needs 44% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 44% to break even | 39%–78% | 16 points betterwon 60%, needs 44% |
| Last season | 17 of 4538%needs 44% to break even | 27%–50% | 7 points shortwon 38%, needs 44% |
| Every game | 17 of 4538%needs 44% to break even | 27%–50% | 7 points shortwon 38%, needs 44% |
Games like tonight
Tonight IND plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against DAL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Every book's price
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Aaron Nesmith under 1.5 threes2 books
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Threes in each game against under 1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Threes | Beat 1.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | ||||
| Mar 27 |  LAC | 4 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Mar 25 |  LAL | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Mar 23 |  ORL | 5 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Mar 21 |  SA | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Mar 18 |  POR | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Mar 17 |  NY | 4 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Mar 15 |  MIL | 7 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Mar 13 | NY | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Mar 10 |  SAC | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Mar 8 | POR | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Mar 6 | LAL | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Mar 4 | LAC | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Feb 19 |  WSH | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Feb 10 | NY | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Feb 8 |  TOR | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Feb 6 | MIL | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Feb 2 |  HOU | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Jan 31 |  ATL | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Jan 28 |  CHI | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Jan 26 | ATL | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Jan 23 |  OKC | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Jan 21 |  BOS | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Jan 19 |  PHI | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Jan 16 |  NO | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Jan 14 | TOR | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Jan 12 | BOS | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Jan 10 |  MIA | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Jan 8 |  CHA | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Jan 6 |  CLE | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Jan 4 | ORL | 5 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Jan 2 | SA | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Dec 31 | ORL | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Dec 29 | HOU | 4 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Dec 27 | MIA | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Nov 13 |  PHX | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Nov 11 |  UTAH | 4 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Nov 8 |  DEN | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Nov 5 |  BKN | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Nov 3 | MIL | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Nov 1 |  GS | 5 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Oct 31 | ATL | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Oct 29 |  DAL | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Oct 26 |  MIN | 5 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Oct 25 |  MEM | 4 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Oct 23 | OKC | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 threesAaron Nesmith · Today 7:10 PM ETDay-to-day |  -164at BetOnline | 28 of 45· last season62%needs 62% to break even | Record is last season's | -25.8Not beating its price | |
| Over 2.5 threesAaron Nesmith · Today 7:10 PM ETDay-to-day |  +170at BetRivers | 20 of 45· last season44%needs 37% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
More on Aaron Nesmith in this game
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.