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NBAPlayer propPts + reb
Aaron Nesmith over 19.5 pts + reb
Won18 of 45last season · 40%
Best price+180BetRivers
Price needs35.7%wins to break even
Every game18 of 45this season and last
Trend score-15.3Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 36% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 36% to break even | 14%–73% | 4 points betterwon 40%, needs 36% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 36% to break even | 19%–65% | 4 points betterwon 40%, needs 36% |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 1527%needs 36% to break even | 13%–48% | 9 points shortwon 27%, needs 36% |
| Last season | 18 of 4540%needs 36% to break even | 29%–52% | 4 points betterwon 40%, needs 36% |
| Every game | 18 of 4540%needs 36% to break even | 29%–52% | 4 points betterwon 40%, needs 36% |
Games like tonight
Tonight IND plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against DAL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Every book's price
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Aaron Nesmith over 19.5 pts + reb2 books
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Pts + reb in each game against over 19.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Pts + reb | Beat 19.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | ||||
| Mar 27 |  LAC | 33 | +13.5 | Won |
| Mar 25 |  LAL | 17 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Mar 23 |  ORL | 21 | +1.5 | Won |
| Mar 21 |  SA | 7 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Mar 18 |  POR | 18 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Mar 17 |  NY | 15 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Mar 15 |  MIL | 34 | +14.5 | Won |
| Mar 13 | NY | 14 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Mar 10 |  SAC | 33 | +13.5 | Won |
| Mar 8 | POR | 10 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Mar 6 | LAL | 10 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Mar 4 | LAC | 5 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Feb 19 |  WSH | 5 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Feb 10 | NY | 19 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Feb 8 |  TOR | 8 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Feb 6 | MIL | 13 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Feb 2 |  HOU | 23 | +3.5 | Won |
| Jan 31 |  ATL | 24 | +4.5 | Won |
| Jan 28 |  CHI | 18 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Jan 26 | ATL | 20 | +0.5 | Won |
| Jan 23 |  OKC | 22 | +2.5 | Won |
| Jan 21 |  BOS | 9 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Jan 19 |  PHI | 18 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Jan 16 |  NO | 16 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Jan 14 | TOR | 11 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Jan 12 | BOS | 11 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Jan 10 |  MIA | 21 | +1.5 | Won |
| Jan 8 |  CHA | 21 | +1.5 | Won |
| Jan 6 |  CLE | 22 | +2.5 | Won |
| Jan 4 | ORL | 29 | +9.5 | Won |
| Jan 2 | SA | 12 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Dec 31 | ORL | 19 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Dec 29 | HOU | 17 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Dec 27 | MIA | 14 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Nov 13 |  PHX | 13 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Nov 11 |  UTAH | 21 | +1.5 | Won |
| Nov 8 |  DEN | 26 | +6.5 | Won |
| Nov 5 |  BKN | 22 | +2.5 | Won |
| Nov 3 | MIL | 24 | +4.5 | Won |
| Nov 1 |  GS | 37 | +17.5 | Won |
| Oct 31 | ATL | 14 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Oct 29 |  DAL | 8 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Oct 26 |  MIN | 26 | +6.5 | Won |
| Oct 25 |  MEM | 16 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Oct 23 | OKC | 12 | -7.5 | Lost |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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More on Aaron Nesmith in this game
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.