This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 45% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 45% to break even | 44%–95% | 35 points betterwon 80%, needs 45% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 45% to break even | 44%–87% | 25 points betterwon 70%, needs 45% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 45% to break even | 28%–67% | 1 points betterwon 47%, needs 45% |
| Last season | 23 of 4551%needs 45% to break even | 39%–63% | 6 points betterwon 51%, needs 45% |
| Every game | 23 of 4551%needs 45% to break even | 39%–63% |
Tonight IND plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against DAL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Points in each game against over 13.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 12.5 pointsAaron Nesmith · Today 7:10 PM ET |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 reboundsAaron Nesmith |
| Date | Opponent | Points | Beat 13.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | ||||
| Mar 27 | 26 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Mar 25 | 14 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 23 | 19 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Mar 21 | 5 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 18 | 15 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 17 | 14 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 15 | 32 | +18.5 | Won | |
| Mar 13 | 12 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 10 | 29 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Mar 8 | 9 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 6 | 7 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 4 | 2 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 19 | 3 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 10 | 11 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 8 | 7 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 6 | 12 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 2 | 17 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jan 31 | 23 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Jan 28 | 14 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 26 | 18 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Jan 23 | 17 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jan 21 | 6 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 19 | 7 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 16 | 12 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 14 | 6 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 12 | 6 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 10 | 12 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 8 | 16 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 6 | 14 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 4 | 25 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Jan 2 | 9 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 31 | 9 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 29 | 14 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 27 | 9 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 13 | 10 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 11 | 17 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Nov 8 | 25 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Nov 5 | 15 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 3 | 17 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Nov 1 | 31 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Oct 31 | 12 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 29 | 5 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 26 | 18 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Oct 25 | 15 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 23 | 5 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| -111at BetOnline |
| 22 of 45· last season49%needs 53% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -26.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +100at BetOnline |
| 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 50% to break even |
| 0.2Slight |
| Over 16.5 pts + rebAaron Nesmith · Today 7:10 PM ETDay-to-day | -106at BetRivers | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 51% to break even | -13.6Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 pts + rebAaron Nesmith · Today 7:10 PM ETDay-to-day | +180at BetRivers | 18 of 45· last season40%needs 36% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.3Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 threesAaron Nesmith · Today 7:10 PM ETDay-to-day | +170at BetRivers | 20 of 45· last season44%needs 37% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.6Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 threesAaron Nesmith · Today 7:10 PM ETDay-to-day | +125at BetOnline | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 44% to break even | -16.5Not beating its price |
| Over 14.5 pts + rebAaron Nesmith · Today 7:10 PM ETDay-to-day | -175at BetRivers | 28 of 45· last season62%needs 64% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.3Not beating its price |
| Over 4.5 reboundsAaron Nesmith · Today 7:10 PM ETDay-to-day | +185at BetRivers | 17 of 45· last season38%needs 35% to break even | Record is last season's | -23.4Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 stealsAaron Nesmith · Today 7:10 PM ETDay-to-day | -125at BetRivers | 20 of 45· last season44%needs 56% to break even | Record is last season's | -25.7Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 threesAaron Nesmith · Today 7:10 PM ETDay-to-day | -164at BetOnline | 28 of 45· last season62%needs 62% to break even | Record is last season's | -25.8Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 blocksAaron Nesmith · Today 7:10 PM ETDay-to-day | +108at BetRivers | 18 of 45· last season40%needs 48% to break even | Record is last season's | -28.5Not beating its price |
| Over 3.5 reboundsAaron Nesmith · Today 7:10 PM ETDay-to-day | -113at BetRivers | 22 of 45· last season49%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -35.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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