This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 43% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 43% to break even | 27%–86% | 17 points betterwon 60%, needs 43% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 43% to break even | 44%–87% | 27 points betterwon 70%, needs 43% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 43% to break even | 33%–72% | 11 points betterwon 53%, needs 43% |
| This season | 1 of 1100%needs 43% to break even | 27%–100% | 57 points betterwon 100%, needs 43% |
| Last season | 25 of 4951%needs 43% to break even | 40%–62% | 8 points betterwon 51%, needs 43% |
| Every game | 26 of 5052%needs 43% to break even | 41%–63% | 9 points betterwon 52%, needs 43% |
Tonight BOS plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against NY. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Steals in each game against over 1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Steals | Beat 1.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 20 | 5 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 10 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 8 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 6 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 4 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 2 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 30 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 28 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 26 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 24 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 21 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 19 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 15 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 12 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 10 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 9 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 6 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 4 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 3 | 4 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 1 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 30 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 28 | 4 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 25 | 4 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 29 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 27 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 24 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 22 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 16 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 14 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 12 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 9 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 7 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 5 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 3 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 1 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 30 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 28 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 26 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 23 | 4 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 19 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 14 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 12 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 7 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 5 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 2 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 30 | 5 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Nov 28 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 23 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 20 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 17 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.