This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 58% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 58% to break even | 44%–95% | 22 points betterwon 80%, needs 58% |
| Last 10 games | 9 of 1090%needs 58% to break even | 65%–98% | 32 points betterwon 90%, needs 58% |
| Last 15 games | 10 of 1567%needs 58% to break even | 46%–83% | 9 points betterwon 67%, needs 58% |
| This season | 1 of 1100%needs 58% to break even | 27%–100% | 42 points betterwon 100%, needs 58% |
| Last season | 26 of 4953%needs 58% to break even | 41%–64% | 5 points shortwon 53%, needs 58% |
Tonight BOS plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against NY. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Threes in each game against over 2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 threesPaul George · Tomorrow 7:10 PM ET |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 19.5 pointsPaul George · Tomorrow 7:10 PM ET |
| Every game | 27 of 5054%needs 58% to break even | 42%–65% | 4 points shortwon 54%, needs 58% |
| Date | Opponent | Threes | Beat 2.5 by | Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 20 | 7 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 10 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 8 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 6 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| May 4 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 2 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 30 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 28 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 26 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 24 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 21 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 19 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 15 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 12 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 10 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 9 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 6 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 4 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 3 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 1 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 30 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 28 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 25 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jan 29 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 27 | 9 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Jan 24 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 22 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 16 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 14 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 12 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 9 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 7 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 5 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 3 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 1 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 30 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 28 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 26 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 23 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 19 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 14 | 7 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Dec 12 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 7 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 5 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 2 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 30 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 28 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 23 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 20 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 17 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| +114at Kalshi |
| 23 of 49· last season47%needs 47% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -28.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -191at Kalshi |
| 36 of 49· last season73%needs 66% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -9.1Not beating its price |
| Under 3.5 assistsPaul George · Tomorrow 7:10 PM ET | -191at Kalshi | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 66% to break even | -18.1Not beating its price |
| Under 14.5 pointsPaul George · Tomorrow 7:10 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 16 of 49· last season33%needs 36% to break even | Record is last season's | -22.7Not beating its price |
| Over 3.5 assistsPaul George · Tomorrow 7:10 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 23 of 49· last season47%needs 43% to break even | Record is last season's | -23.7Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 pointsPaul George · Tomorrow 7:10 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 13 of 49· last season27%needs 43% to break even | Record is last season's | -30.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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