This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 59% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 59% to break even | 14%–73% | 19 points shortwon 40%, needs 59% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 59% to break even | 44%–87% | 11 points betterwon 70%, needs 59% |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 59% to break even | 52%–87% | 15 points betterwon 73%, needs 59% |
| This season | 31 of 5260%needs 59% to break even | 48%–70% | 1 points betterwon 60%, needs 59% |
| Last season | 27 of 4757%needs 59% to break even | 45%–69% | 1 points shortwon 57%, needs 59% |
| Every game | 58 of 9959%needs 59% to break even | 50%–66% | evenwon 59%, needs 59% |
Tonight ATL plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against GS. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against atl -3.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat 3.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 26 | +22.5 | Won | |
| Oct 19 | 14 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Oct 17 | -4 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 9 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 7 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 4 | 10 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Sep 30 | 18 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Sep 27 | 15 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Sep 23 | 18 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Sep 21 | 11 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Sep 19 | 25 | +21.5 | Won | |
| Sep 17 | 44 | +40.5 | Won | |
| Aug 30 | 8 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Aug 28 | -18 | -21.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 24 | 7 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Aug 22 | 10 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Aug 20 | 36 | +32.5 | Won | |
| Aug 18 | 15 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Aug 16 | -4 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 13 | 35 | +31.5 | Won | |
| Aug 10 | 12 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Aug 7 | -5 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 5 | 14 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Aug 3 | -22 | -25.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 31 | 9 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Jul 29 | 1 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 19 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 17 | 19 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Jul 13 | 9 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Jul 11 | -10 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 9 | 11 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Jul 4 | -5 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 2 | -5 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 27 | -15 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 26 | -3 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 24 | -11 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 22 | 7 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jun 20 | 17 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Jun 18 | 7 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jun 14 | 25 | +21.5 | Won | |
| Jun 11 | -14 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 9 | 7 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jun 6 | 32 | +28.5 | Won | |
| Jun 4 | -12 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 2 | 16 | +12.5 | Won | |
| May 29 | 20 | +16.5 | Won | |
| May 27 | -15 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| May 24 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 22 | 17 | +13.5 | Won | |
| May 17 | -1 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| May 12 | 5 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 9 | 1 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Sep 18 | -2 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 16 | -17 | -20.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 14 | 12 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Sep 10 | 16 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Sep 8 | 25 | +21.5 | Won | |
| Sep 5 | 19 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Sep 3 | 11 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Sep 1 | 17 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Aug 29 | 22 | +18.5 | Won | |
| Aug 27 | -6 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 23 | 16 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Aug 21 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 19 | -2 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 17 | 16 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Aug 15 | -2 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 13 | 10 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Aug 10 | 8 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Aug 7 | 21 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Aug 3 | 16 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Aug 1 | 23 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Jul 30 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 29 | -2 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 27 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 23 | 11 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Jul 22 | -15 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 16 | 37 | +33.5 | Won | |
| Jul 13 | -7 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 11 | -17 | -20.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 7 | 9 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Jul 3 | -1 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 29 | 9 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Jun 27 | -4 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 24 | -13 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 22 | 13 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Jun 20 | 1 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 17 | -5 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 15 | 33 | +29.5 | Won | |
| Jun 13 | 18 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Jun 10 | 19 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Jun 6 | -8 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| May 30 | 7 | +3.5 | Won | |
| May 27 | 6 | +2.5 | Won | |
| May 25 | 24 | +20.5 | Won | |
| May 24 | 8 | +4.5 | Won | |
| May 22 | -5 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| May 20 | 1 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| May 16 | -4 | -7.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.