This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 43% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 43% to break even | 14%–73% | 3 points shortwon 40%, needs 43% | 45.4receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 43% to break even | 7%–46% | 23 points shortwon 20%, needs 43% | 38.5receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 2 of 1513%needs 43% to break even | 5%–33% | 30 points shortwon 13%, needs 43% | 36.7receiving yards |
| This season | 2 of 540%needs 43% to break even | 14%–73% | 3 points shortwon 40%, needs 43% | 45.4receiving yards |
| Last season | 5 of 1828% |
Tonight IND plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against MIN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 1 of 11 on the road. Tonight: MIN allows 132.8 receiving yards a game to wide receivers, the 7th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 150.3): a tough matchup for this bet. How MIN defends wide receivers
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 54.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores a TD |
| 14%–47% |
| 16 points shortwon 28%, needs 43% |
| 44.6receiving yards |
| Every game | 7 of 2330%needs 43% to break even | 17%–48% | 13 points shortwon 30%, needs 43% | 44.7receiving yards |
| Beat 54.5 by |
|---|
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 82 | +27.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 45 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 63 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 5 | -49.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 32 | -22.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 25 | -29.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 18 | 36 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 17 | -37.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 44 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 36 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | 22 | -32.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 30 | -24.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | 53 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | 19 | -35.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 41 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 44 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 119 | +64.5 | Won | |
| Wk 6 | 27 | -27.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 58 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 37 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 65 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 61 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 68 | +13.5 | Won | |
| +173at Kalshi |
| 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 37% to break even3 of 11 on the road |
| -19.6Not beating its price |
| Under 39.5 receiving yardsKeenan Allen · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +109at Kalshi | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 48% to break even6 of 11 on the road | -13.6Not beating its price |
| Under 40.5 receiving yardsKeenan Allen · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -114at FanDuel | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 53% to break even6 of 11 on the road | -18.1Not beating its price |
| Under 41.5 receiving yardsKeenan Allen · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -110at DraftKings | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 52% to break even7 of 11 on the road | -14.8Not beating its price |
| Under 42.5 receiving yardsKeenan Allen · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -113at BetRivers | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 53% to break even7 of 11 on the road | -15.4Not beating its price |
| Under 43.5 receiving yardsKeenan Allen · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -115at BetMGM | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 53% to break even7 of 11 on the road | -15.7Not beating its price |
| Under 44.5 receiving yardsKeenan Allen · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -111at BetOnline | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 53% to break even8 of 11 on the road | -9.1Not beating its price |
| Under 49.5 receiving yardsKeenan Allen · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -168at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 63% to break even9 of 11 on the road | -11.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +406at Polymarket |
| 4 of 18· last season22%needs 20% to break even1 of 11 on the road |
| Record is last season's |
| -12.1Not beating its price |
| Under 5.5 receptionsKeenan Allen · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -148at DraftKings | 14 of 18· last season78%needs 60% to break even10 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -13.8Not beating its price |
| Over 4.5 receptionsKeenan Allen · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -137at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 58% to break even6 of 11 on the road | -17.8Not beating its price |
| Under 4.5 receptionsKeenan Allen · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +121at BetOnline | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 45% to break even5 of 11 on the road | -18.8Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 receptionsKeenan Allen · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +126at FanDuel | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 44% to break even1 of 11 on the road | -22.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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