This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 53% to break even | 14%–73% | 13 points shortwon 40%, needs 53% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 53% to break even | 35%–81% | 7 points betterwon 60%, needs 53% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 53% to break even | 39%–78% | 7 points betterwon 60%, needs 53% |
| This season | 2 of 540%needs 53% to break even | 14%–73% | 13 points shortwon 40%, needs 53% |
| Last season | 9 of 1850%needs 53% to break even | 32%–68% | 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% |
| Every game |
Tonight IND plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against MIN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 39.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 39.5 receiving yardsKeenan Allen |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 receptionsKeenan Allen |
| 32%–64% |
| 5 points shortwon 48%, needs 53% |
| 82 |
| -42.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 5 | 45 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 63 | -23.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 5 | +34.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 32 | +7.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 25 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Wk 18 | 36 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 17 | 17 | +22.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 44 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 36 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 22 | +17.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 30 | +9.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 53 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 19 | +20.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 41 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | 44 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 119 | -79.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | 27 | +12.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 58 | -18.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 37 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 65 | -25.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 61 | -21.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 68 | -28.5 | Lost |
| -121at Kalshi |
| 9 of 18· last season50%needs 55% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -24.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -137at Kalshi |
| 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 58% to break even |
| -17.8Not beating its price |
| Under 4.5 receptionsKeenan Allen · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 48% to break even | -21.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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