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NFLPlayer propReceptions
Keenan Allen under 5.5 receptions
Won14 of 18last season · 78%
Best price-148DraftKings
Price needs59.7%wins to break even
Every game16 of 23this season and last
Trend score-13.8Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 60% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 60% to break even | 14%–73% | 20 points shortwon 40%, needs 60% | 5.2receptions |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 60% to break even | 35%–81% | evenwon 60%, needs 60% | 4.7receptions |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 60% to break even | 52%–87% | 14 points betterwon 73%, needs 60% | 4.1receptions |
| This season | 2 of 540%needs 60% to break even | 14%–73% | 20 points shortwon 40%, needs 60% | 5.2receptions |
| Last season | 14 of 1878%needs 60% to break even | 59%–90% | 18 points betterwon 78%, needs 60% | 4.7receptions |
| Every game | 16 of 2370%needs 60% to break even | 52%–83% | 10 points betterwon 70%, needs 60% | 4.8receptions |
Games like tonight
Tonight IND plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against MIN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 10 of 11 on the road. Tonight: MIN allows 10.2 receptions a game to wide receivers, the 9th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 11.5): an easy matchup for this bet. How MIN defends wide receivers
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Every book's price
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Keenan Allen under 5.5 receptions3 books
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Receptions in each game against under 5.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receptions | Beat 5.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 |  TEN | 8 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 |  PIT | 5 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 |  HOU | 6 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 |  KC | 1 | +4.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 |  BAL | 6 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 |  NE | 3 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 18 |  DEN | 7 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 17 | HOU | 1 | +4.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 |  DAL | 5 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | KC | 5 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 |  PHI | 3 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 |  LV | 4 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 |  JAX | 4 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | PIT | 2 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | TEN | 2 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 |  MIN | 4 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 |  IND | 11 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 |  MIA | 4 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 |  WSH | 5 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 |  NYG | 5 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | DEN | 7 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | LV | 5 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | KC | 7 | -1.5 | Lost |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 receptionsKeenan Allen · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) |  -142at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 59% to break even6 of 11 on the road | -18.5Not beating its price | ||
| Over 5.5 receptionsKeenan Allen · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) |  +126at FanDuel | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 44% to break even1 of 11 on the road | -22.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
More on Keenan Allen in this game
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 44.5 receiving yardsKeenan Allen · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) |  -111at BetOnline | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 53% to break even8 of 11 on the road | -9.1Not beating its price | ||
| Under 49.5 receiving yardsKeenan Allen · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -168at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 63% to break even9 of 11 on the road | -11.9Not beating its price | ||
| Scores a TDKeenan Allen · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) |  +406at Polymarket | 4 of 18· last season22%needs 20% to break even1 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -12.1Not beating its price | |
| Under 39.5 receiving yardsKeenan Allen · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +109at Kalshi | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 48% to break even6 of 11 on the road | -13.6Not beating its price | ||
| Under 41.5 receiving yardsKeenan Allen · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) |  -110at DraftKings | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 52% to break even7 of 11 on the road | -14.8Not beating its price | ||
| Under 42.5 receiving yardsKeenan Allen · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) |  -113at BetRivers | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 53% to break even7 of 11 on the road | -15.4Not beating its price | ||
| Under 43.5 receiving yardsKeenan Allen · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) |  -115at BetMGM | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 53% to break even7 of 11 on the road | -15.7Not beating its price | ||
| Over 59.5 receiving yardsKeenan Allen · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +250at FanDuel | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 29% to break even1 of 11 on the road | -16.3Not beating its price | ||
| Under 40.5 receiving yardsKeenan Allen · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -114at FanDuel | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 53% to break even6 of 11 on the road | -18.1Not beating its price | ||
| Under 29.5 receiving yardsKeenan Allen · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +173at Kalshi | 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 37% to break even3 of 11 on the road | -19.6Not beating its price | ||
| Over 49.5 receiving yardsKeenan Allen · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +154at FanDuel | 6 of 18· last season33%needs 39% to break even2 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -22.3Not beating its price | |
| Over 40.5 receiving yardsKeenan Allen · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -114at FanDuel | 9 of 18· last season50%needs 53% to break even5 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -22.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.