This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 53% to break even | 14%–73% | 13 points shortwon 40%, needs 53% | 28receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 53% to break even | 27%–73% | 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% | 23.7receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 53% to break even | 33%–72% | evenwon 53%, needs 53% | 22.3receiving yards |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 53% to break even | 12%–65% | 20 points shortwon 33%, needs 53% | 27.2receiving yards |
| Last season |
Tonight IND plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against MIN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 7 of 11 on the road. Tonight: MIN allows 18.4 receiving yards a game to running backs, the 4th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 31.3): an easy matchup for this bet. How MIN defends running backs
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 19.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 19.5 by |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 29%–66% |
| 6 points shortwon 47%, needs 53% |
| 22.2receiving yards |
| Every game | 10 of 2343%needs 53% to break even | 28%–60% | 10 points shortwon 43%, needs 53% | 23.5receiving yards |
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 57 | -37.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 37 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 2 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 4 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 40 | -20.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 23 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 13 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 14 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 33 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 14 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Wk 14 | 0 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 36 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | 8 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Wk 10 | 42 | -22.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 12 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Wk 8 | 21 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 38 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 6 | 14 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 20 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 20 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 16 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 50 | -30.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 27 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| -148at Kalshi |
| 10 of 17· last season59%needs 60% to break even5 of 11 on the road |
| Record is last season's |
| -22.9Not beating its price |
| Over 15.5 receiving yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -140at Fanatics | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 58% to break even5 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -21.8Not beating its price |
| Over 16.5 receiving yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -125at BetMGM | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 56% to break even4 of 11 on the road | Record is this season's | -20.6Not beating its price |
| Over 17.5 receiving yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -114at FanDuel | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 53% to break even4 of 11 on the road | Record is this season's | -18.7Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 receiving yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +105at BetRivers | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 49% to break even4 of 11 on the road | Record is this season's | -15.1Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 receiving yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +175at BetMGM | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 36% to break even3 of 11 on the road | -12.0Not beating its price |
| Over 27.5 receiving yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +137at BetOnline | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 42% to break even3 of 11 on the road | -17.7Not beating its price |
| Over 29.5 receiving yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +225at FanDuel | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 31% to break even3 of 11 on the road | -8.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +165at Fanatics |
| 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 38% to break even4 of 11 on the road |
| -2.8Not beating its price |
| Over 18.5 rush attemptsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +124at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 45% to break even4 of 11 on the road | Record is this season's | -3.4Not beating its price |
| Over 67.5 rushing yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -115at BetMGM | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 53% to break even7 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -5.3Not beating its price |
| Over 20.5 rush attemptsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +189at BetOnline | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 35% to break even3 of 11 on the road | -6.6Not beating its price |
| Over 17.5 rush attemptsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -105at BetMGM | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 51% to break even4 of 11 on the road | Record is this season's | -7.9Not beating its price |
| Over 89.5 rushing yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +200at Fanatics | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 33% to break even4 of 11 on the road | Record is this season's | -8.3Not beating its price |
| Over 15.5 rush attemptsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -193at DraftKings | 14 of 17· last season82%needs 66% to break even8 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -9.0Not beating its price |
| Over 79.5 rushing yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +130at BetRivers | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 43% to break even5 of 11 on the road | Record is this season's | -11.7Not beating its price |
| Over 60.5 rushing yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -172at BetOnline | 13 of 17· last season76%needs 63% to break even7 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -12.0Not beating its price |
| Over 69.5 rushing yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -116at Kalshi | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 54% to break even7 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -12.4Not beating its price |
| Over 16.5 rush attemptsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -156at BetOnline | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 61% to break even6 of 11 on the road | Record is this season's | -12.6Not beating its price |
| Over 114.5 rush + rec yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +189at Kalshi | 7 of 17· last season41%needs 35% to break even3 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -13.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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