This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 35% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 35% to break even | 27%–86% | 25 points betterwon 60%, needs 35% | 20.6rush attempts |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 35% to break even | 27%–73% | 15 points betterwon 50%, needs 35% | 19.8rush attempts |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 35% to break even | 33%–72% | 19 points betterwon 53%, needs 35% | 20.1rush attempts |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 35% to break even | 22%–78% | 15 points betterwon 50%, needs 35% | 20.3rush attempts |
| Last season |
Tonight IND plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against MIN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 3 of 11 on the road. Tonight: MIN allows 19 rush attempts a game to running backs, the 5th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 21.9): a tough matchup for this bet. How MIN defends running backs
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Rush attempts in each game against over 20.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Rush attempts | Beat 20.5 by |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 7 of 1741%needs 35% to break even |
| 24%–61% |
| 7 points betterwon 41%, needs 35% |
| 19rush attempts |
| Every game | 10 of 2343%needs 35% to break even | 28%–60% | 9 points betterwon 43%, needs 35% | 19.3rush attempts |
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 21 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 15 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 20 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 23 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 24 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 19 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 14 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 21 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 16 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 25 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Wk 14 | 21 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 21 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 12 | 16 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | 32 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 14 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 12 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 16 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 6 | 21 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 17 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 17 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 17 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 25 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 18 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| +159at Kalshi |
| 3 of 15· last 15 games20%needs 39% to break even3 of 11 on the road |
| -26.5Not beating its price |
| Under 17.5 rush attemptsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -117at DraftKings | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 54% to break even7 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -31.2Not beating its price |
| Under 18.5 rush attemptsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -161at Kalshi | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 62% to break even7 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -36.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -115at BetMGM |
| 12 of 17· last season71%needs 53% to break even7 of 11 on the road |
| Record is last season's |
| -5.3Not beating its price |
| Over 89.5 rushing yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +200at Fanatics | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 33% to break even4 of 11 on the road | Record is this season's | -8.3Not beating its price |
| Over 29.5 receiving yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +225at FanDuel | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 31% to break even3 of 11 on the road | -8.3Not beating its price |
| Over 79.5 rushing yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +130at BetRivers | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 43% to break even5 of 11 on the road | Record is this season's | -11.7Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 receiving yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +175at BetMGM | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 36% to break even3 of 11 on the road | -12.0Not beating its price |
| Over 60.5 rushing yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -172at BetOnline | 13 of 17· last season76%needs 63% to break even7 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -12.0Not beating its price |
| Over 69.5 rushing yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -116at Kalshi | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 54% to break even7 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -12.4Not beating its price |
| Over 114.5 rush + rec yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +189at Kalshi | 7 of 17· last season41%needs 35% to break even3 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -13.2Not beating its price |
| Over 90.5 rushing yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +154at BetOnline | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 39% to break even4 of 11 on the road | Record is this season's | -13.3Not beating its price |
| Over 80.5 rushing yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +117at BetOnline | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 46% to break even5 of 11 on the road | Record is this season's | -13.9Not beating its price |
| Over 59.5 rushing yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -191at Kalshi | 13 of 17· last season76%needs 66% to break even7 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -14.0Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -107at Kalshi | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 52% to break even5 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -14.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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